The Lions have been unfadeable for the most part this season, but this is an exception. Given their extreme injury concerns on both sides of the ball, combined with a rare outdoor game, the underwhelming Bears are the ATS value side.

There's not a lot of positives to take from D'Andre Swift's stats this season, but he's still getting the carries as the clear number one back in Chicago. Now he faces a Detroit defense that continues to pile up the injuries, including on the Defensive Line with Alim McNeil. If you follow my picks, you know I'm also on Caleb Williams passing yards over. I think they can both get there, but they'll need to establish some semblance of a run game and that's where Swift comes in. Swift is projected to get 12-14 carries in this game which should be enough to hit this over. Play it up to 57.5.

The Lions are so banged up, it’s ridiculous. Despite that, they went toe-to-toe with the Bills. Detroit failed to cover -8.5 against Chicago last month, but that was because it let up in the fourth quarter allowing the Bears to score two TDs late; the game was 23-7 at the end of the third. Chicago is 0-2 losing to the Vikings and 49ers by an average of 21.5 points since Thomas Brown took over as interim coach. David Montgomery being out hurts offensively, but that does create more opportunities for Jahmyr Gibbs. Dan Campbell should have his team fully motivated coming out of a loss given the ongoing fight for the No. 1 seed. If any team needs that rest, it’s the Lions.

The Bears are dangerous to me because they've lost 8 straight. Their last cover was against the Lions in Detroit on November 28th. Detroit is 12-2 and 9-5 against the spread. The reason to really like Detroit this week is because they lost at home last week to Buffalo. Another reason to like Detroit this week is they have not covered the spread the last 3 weeks. And just think about it, the Bears haven't won for eight straight games and only covered twice. Lions to cover.

The rash of injuries continue for the Lions, particularly on defense, but I'm not sure it's going to matter against this Bears team playing out the string under an interim coach who appears over his head. The Bears have gotten steamrolled in the first half the last two weeks and now have to face one of the best offenses in the league coming off a disappointing loss and focused on winning out to land the No. 1 seed. The Lions should score 30+ in this scenario more often than not and I don't trust Chicago to keep up.

This line ranges right now between 207.5 through 214.5 and it looks like the best of the number is at BetMGM. Going back to last year, I've been a pretty big Caleb Williams detractor, but this is a good setup for him against an increasingly injured Lions defense. With Alim McNeil out, I suspect the pass rush will be limited and that should give Caleb more time against a Carlton Davis-less secondary. Add a likely negative game script and the path is paved for Caleb to throw it around a bit and sail past this number. It'll be cold in Chicago, but otherwise the conditions should be fine and the game total continues to be high at 48.

There is some risk in picking the Bears before they take the field Monday night. Yet this line could be headed south because Detroit will take the field Sunday without a bunch of key players. On offense, scratch RB David Montgomery. On defense, scratch (deep breath) CBs Khalil Dorsey and Carlton Davis III, along with DT Alim McNeill. Entering Monday's matchup with Minnesota, Chicago had not won straight-up since mid-October. Until getting hammered by the 49ers in their last outing, however, they were competitive, falling to their three elite NFC North brethren by a combined seven points -- one in overtime. The recent three-point defeat at Detroit bodes well for a close finish. The Bears will welcome their first home date in a month.