The Giants have been tough on tight ends but this is a great spot for Juwan Johnson. The Saints are depleted at wideout, and are missing Taysom Hill. Johnson usually picks up targets when Hill is out.

With Taysom Hill out for the season in addition to all of the Saints' many injuries, TE Juwan Johnson has even more opportunity and likely target share against the Giants today. Johnson ran a route last week on 79% of dropbacks for a 20.6% target share. Look for more of the same today. The Saints are also getting back two offensive linemen this week, which should give QB Derek Carr a clean pocket to find Johnson downfield more often.

The Giants have little left to play for at this point in their disastrous season. With Drew Lock under center, their sole focus should be on developing their young talent. RB Tyrone Tracy has a great matchup in front of him against a Saints rush defense that ranks bottom of the league. Although Tracy has gone under this mark in his last two games, he should see increased volume in a game like this against New Orleans, in which he is unlikely to get scripted out of. In weeks 8, 9 & 10, Tracy had 15+ carries and 60+ rush yards against weak run defenses. He should do so again this week.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. is set up for success Sunday against a Saints defense that ranks 32nd against running backs, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. New Orleans is especially weak defending runs between the tackles -- where 61 percent of Tracy's carries go. Look for the rookie. The Saints just gave up 146 rushing yards to the Rams' running backs last week.

The Giants have allowed 5.0 yards per rush and a 10.7% explosive rush rate to running backs this year, that's bad for them but good for Kamara. And now New York will play without stud D-tackle Dexter Lawrence clogging the A-gaps nor linebacker Bobby Okereke tackling dudes. No doubt, this is a high number for Kamara -- he's gone over this just four times all year, including last week in a little bit of a tougher matchup against the Rams -- but it's by design. Kamara will have a clear path to dominating carries for the Saints, especially with Taysom Hill out and Kendre Miller just coming back from IR.

Carr is a dome QB now, he doesn't use his legs to extend plays and he has been known to make poor decisions forcing balls, especially in the redzone. This isn't his type of game conditions - real feel of 31 at kickoff - and the Giants have nothing to lose at this point off a value. Carr has thrown 15 picks in his last 16 games outdoors. First road game under the interim coach and some regression already seeping in. Giants have injuries up front but can still dial up pressure.

This is a massive number. We have the Saints favored outdoors in December. The Saints have struggled significantly in their last six games without Taysom Hill, losing 5 out of 6. They've averaged only 15.3 points per game during this stretch, showcasing a stark contrast to their performance with him on the field. With Hill active, the Saints averaged 26.6 points per game across 94 matchups. Without him, that number drops to 17.6 points per game. The Giants are without Dexter Lawrence but can still get pressure from the edge. I like Drew Lock's mobility over Tommy DeVito, so give me the home dog.

Drew Lock will continue as Giants starter even though the offense played no better last week, but this play is more about the Saints. Taysom Hill is a surprisingly big loss for the offense, which will now be forced to play more traditionally with not much talent in the way of pass catchers. The Giants' receivers should have success against the Saints' cornerbacks if Lock has time to throw, and the Saints pass rush shouldn't be as troublesome as Micah Parsons and Co. I'm at the point where I'm not sure the Saints should be more than three-point road favorites against anyone with their current roster, so I'll take the value with the home 'dog.

The Saints offense isn't special, it's especially not special outside of their dome and they just lost their biggest chain mover for the year (Taysom Hill). NO 8-6 to under on road since start of last season. Carr is under in 11 of his last 16 outdoor games. Saints 9-4 to under in last 13 outdoor games outside the NFC South. Giants 5-1 Under at home (under margin of 11 PPG!). NYG 11-3 to under at home since start of last season, averaging 33.7 total points (nearly 4 fewer than any team). Teams combined for 30 points when they met last season. Saints first road game under new coach. Giants pass rush shows up much more at home.