With the Texans getting healthier at the right time on the offensive side of the ball, it means they will look like the team we saw late last season as opposed to the sputtering one this season. All of that coincides with a sputtering Titans team at home.

Calvin Ridley is known as a deep threat and has connected for a 23 or more yards reception five times this season. Four of those five times have been in the last five weeks since he is now the main Titans' target with WR DeAndre Hopkins traded to the Chiefs. He would have had five of the last five weeks, but he had a 50+ yard reception called back last week. He still had a reception of 21 yards, very close to this line. But the matchup also dictates this is a good play. The Texans' secondary can be attacked deep, as they allow the 12th-most receiving yards on throws traveling 20 or more yards.

We know Nico Collins can put up huge numbers anytime he touches the field. He had a huge touchdown pass called back to open the Monday Night Football game vs. the Cowboys. So his box score looks more muted than it easily could have been. Monday night was Collins' first game back from a hamstring injury. He looked good and is the Texans' alpha receiver and main target. He'll likely get more snaps and routes run on Sunday. Collins scored a touchdown in three of his first five games, and now that he's back, I like the plus odds price for him to find the endzone against the Titans.

The Titans have won just one game in regulation all year, and it was a 31-point explosion against a Dolphins team that couldn't move the ball with somehow just two TDs scored for Tennessee. They've scored no more than 17 in any other game, ranking 28th in red zone success rate and average 1.8 offensive TDs per game. The Texans defense is rounding into form and has been particularly strong generating turnovers, including five picks of Jared Goff. I'll count on less than 300 yards from Tennessee here and no more than 16 points.

Though the Titans' defense has been fairly stingy against the pass this season, let's play the Stroud-Nico Collins angle. In the six games Collins has played in this season, Stroud is over this number in five of them. In the five games Collins missed, Stroud was under this total in four of them. I would play this number up to 240 in Week 12.

CJ Stroud is regressing and young OC Bobby Slowik aint special and this offense, even with Nico Collins back, seems to have run out of ideas in the RZ. It also has a pathetic protecting OL ... But a bellcow RB with a nose for the endzone who just scored 3 times on MNF. Titans have allowed 8 rushing TD their last 5 games and Mixon has 8 in his last 5, with two games where this cashed in that span. I see a very conservative approach here against a tricky D, even with the Texans back at home.

This number is artificially low because the Titans have played a gauntlet of tough defenses in recent weeks. I’m not overly impressed with the Texans D. Garbage points also could come into play.