No Zeke Elliott for Dallas so that's huge ... yeah, I'm kidding. This isn't 2016. Still not fully buying Atlanta but have to fade Dallas with that defense still down Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and DaRon Bland -- star corner Trevon Diggs will play but is also dealing with a torn calf muscle so could be severely compromised and was close to sitting out. Atlanta is pretty healthy.

Totals this massive generally are confined to games with explosive, scary offenses. While the Falcons can churn out points, they do not fit the description. The Dallas O ranks 15th in the league, and it left home troubled RB Ezekiel Elliott. The Falcons' defense, ranked among the NFL's middle class, should keep the Cowboys in the low 20s given how they own the worst red-zone offense and settle for too many field goal tries. That would mean Atlanta, no master itself of scoring in the red zone, must find a way to 30 points or more, no easy feat in any game for most teams.

This was 37.5 but has ticked up with Ezekiel Elliott ruled out for disciplinary reasons -- and I tend to think it probably rises another yard or two or even three by tomorrow simply with a lot of action on Dowdle in the wake of the Zeke news. Dowdle's carries jumped from 9.5 to 11.5 as of now. I wouldn't hate Over 11.5, either, but prefer this one. Doubt Dalvin Cook vultures too many carries. Atlanta allows nearly 133.0 YPG on the ground. The model has Dowdle with 45 yards.

The Cowboys' only wins have come away from home this season and this rates a decent spot for another one against an erratic Atlanta club that has covered just once as a home favorite this season, and OT win over the Bucs in which it was outplayed much of the way.

This total feels low for Dowdle. He was a late scratch last Sunday night with an illness but in his three prior games Dowdle finished with 11, 20 and 5 carries. Keep in mind the five carries came in a blowout loss to the Lions where Dallas had to ditch the run early. Zeke Elliott and Dalvin Cook combined for a whopping 46 yards against the 49ers and it's painfully obvious that neither back is the answer. The Cowboys planned to feature Dowdle coming out of the bye and I don't expect that to change just because he missed last week's game. I think this number closes around 11.5.

Last year the Dallas Cowboys came out of the bye week committed to making sure Lamb got the ball. This year? Seems like the same thing. Let’s start backing him.

The Cowboys run game is a total joke at this point, the Falcons are solid against the ground game and Atlanta is allowing opposing QBs to complete 73% of their passes, worst in the NFL. Dak has been on a 40-throw pace in most games this season, getting curbed by being yanked from some blowouts and, frankly, by his own INTs at time negating more pass attempts. Atlanta is going to move the ball and score points on this sad Dallas D and Dak will need to keep pace. He's over this in 4 of the last 6 games.

The other back in the Falcons attack is pretty damn effective himself, and he can pick up explosives really easy against a terrible run D. Allgeier is averaging 44 yards/game at a 5.2/carry clip. Dallas is allowing a staggering 5.8/carry when opponents run out of 11 personnel, a good look here. I see the Falcons nursing a solid lead in the second half and road grading this light-in-the-ass defense in the second half to put them out of their misery.

The Cowboys run D is a total joke and Atlanta has the goods to exploit it. No reason to get too cute. Bijan has averaged 87/G in the last 3 games as he has seen more work, and for the season he is at 68/G, plenty close enough to his average considering the terrible D he is facing. Falcons love to run out of spread looks; Dallas is 32nd in NFL in EPA vs 11 Personnel runs. Both backs excel with that extra space but Bijan is the more efficient. Has power to gut them up the middle as well, Cowboys don't have a space eater worth a damn on their roster.

Falcons scored 26+ in 4 of their last 5, the OL is getting a little better and they have a rest advantage and home field advantage against a horrible defense. Dallas has allowed 28+ in 5 of 6 and the beat of 49ers moved ball all over them even with Cowpokes coming off a bye. Dallas is allowing 28/G and is 32nd in RZ D. Falcons can run all over them between the 20s and throw or run for scores. Kirk Cousins has a 99.4 rating in 11 games vs DAL with 18 TD to 5 INT. Falcons have too many weapons on offense and Dallas will throw a ton knowing they need 30 to have a chance to win. Dak's INTs will help, too