This line has fallen below a full touchdown, and it’s probably from sharp action thinking the Jaguars will be poised for a bounce-back effort. Why, exactly? Jacksonville looks to be among the worst teams in the league, Trevor Lawrence has lost eight straight starts, and Houston is similarly positioned to rebound after getting whooped last week by Minnesota (so there’s no motivational edge). The Texans and their weapons have every opportunity to tear apart a defense that gave up 47 points last week and now hits the road on a short week. Houston has undoubtedly performed below expectations, but it should put everything together here for a cover even if the spread is inflated by about 1-1.5 points.

The Texans are 2-1, but were blown out last week and squeezed by marginal opponents in their two wins. The Jaguars are coming off a disastrous performance Monday night in Buffalo and the last time they truly resembled a solid club was in last year's victory at Houston. Look for at least a respectable showing that nets an ATS victory.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the daunting task of traveling on the road once again after Monday’s blowout loss to Buffalo. The good news is they will be playing a divisional rival in the Houston Texans. It’s actually the last win Trevor Lawrence had under center back in November of 2023. Look for the offense to perform better without a ballooned deficit to work out of. Take the points with the Jaguars.

There was concern over Nico Collins' hamstring, but he practiced fully Friday and is good to go. This is a dream matchup. Jacksonville plays more man coverage than any team, and Collins destroys man coverage. It also helps that Tank Dell is out. Look for Collins to make at least six catches Sunday.

Nico Collins posted a truly stellar season last year and not only has proven that lasts year season was no fluke, he’s been even better this season and is truly one of the games elite pass catchers. Now he gets to face a Jags defense that possesses one of the leagues most ineffective pass rushes coupled with a defense that double teams opposing WRs at one of the lowest rates in the league. The Jags lead the NFL with a 61% man coverage rate. Nico will have even less target competition as Tank Dell is going to miss this game. Collins could go completely nuclear in this matchup if the Jags are able to push Houston whatsoever.

Stroud comes in off his worst game, but he is back at home where his splits are massive (over 300 yards/game) and facing a defense he owns (292 yds/g) and one that is lack9ng major pieces in coverage at LB and in secondary. Texans can't run the ball and Bobby Slowik has been too conservative lately but I expect more deep shots in this game and a return to play action explosives. Jags can't generate enough pressure though HOU OL does give me pause. The picks last week cost him yardage but that is a rarity for him. Can attack the failing and tired Jags D in a short week coming out throwing like the Bills did Monday night.

Playing in Minnesota is difficult. Laremy Tunsil got penalized so many times, the Texans' offense couldn't gain any traction. It will be much different at home versus Jacksonville. Although the Jaguars should respond following an embarrassing Monday night loss in Buffalo, I like how Houston's trio of receivers matches up with Jacksonville's leaky secondary. The Jags play a ton of man coverage; C.J. Stroud is going to burn it.

Both teams just got embarrassed in Week 3, but I consider those losses on different levels. The Texans lost in a tough road environment to a Vikings defense that might be elite. I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong they need to adjust. The Jaguars' loss to the Bills was a failure on every level: bad coaching, bad execution and an inability to adjust when things weren't working. The Bills scored TDs on all five first-half drives, while the Jags put up just 3.5 yards per play despite getting 30 minutes of garbage time. I thought they were unlucky to be 0-2 heading into the game, but maybe this is just a bad team that's going to get destroyed by good teams like Houston.