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There is no reason, at this juncture, to trust anything the Panthers are putting on the field. Meanwhile, the Chargers flexed in Week 1 as Jim Harbaugh reminded folks he can coach just as well in the NFL as he did in college. Los Angeles is going to run, run and run some more Sunday against a Carolina team that could not get off the field as New Orleans did the same last week. Joey Bosa missed practice this week, but assuming he plays out of his “questionable” designation, he’s going to wreak havoc on that Panthers front. Joshua Palmer, one of Justin Herbert’s few weapons, will be active. I'd generally cap this at -4, but I'm willing to stretch the play given Carolina's ineptitude.
This is just too cheap of a price to fade what is pretty clearly the worst team in the league. The Panthers received a lot of off-season hype mostly because of the addition of coach Dave Canales, but last week they looked worse than last season's 2-win club. The rebuilding Chargers are a work in progress themselves but should have the upper hand here.
You could see the Chargers playing in a completely different manner last week under their coach Jim Harbaugh. He didn't put his team in stupid situations. He's a conservative coach who uses the fullback, tight ends and likes to run while also keeping his quarterback Justin Herbert healthy and happy. It's a tough mix but he makes it work and keeps everybody happy which changes the entire culture of the Chargers locker room. The Panthers, I don't know what's going on with them but it isn’t working. They need a lot more than home to get the wins and I don't think Bryce Young is the answer to QB. Chargers win by 10.
I'm breaking a couple of rules with this pick, but I'm confident enough in the culture change for the Chargers under Jim Harbaugh that I'm pulling the trigger here. The Chargers playing in the early window on the East Coast isn't ideal, but they are at least a touchdown better than this Carolina team.
It was the JK Dobbins show in Chargers run game last week as they gradually pulled away from the Raiders late. I expect this to be a four-quarter curb-stomp and Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman will let their sledgehammer back get some run inside the 10, where I expect them to be quite a bit vs broken Carolina. This dude had 13 rushing TDs a year ago and they aren't going to want Justin Herbert finishing drives on ground. Dobbins extreme injury history could lead to him watching some of this game. Panthers have allowed 27 rushing TD since start of 2023 season, most in the NFL
Carolina got obliterated Week 1 by the Saints 47-10 and Panthers RBs combined for just 15 carries for 43 yards. Sanders did "lead" the way with 22 yards on 5 totes and it appears that both backs are in a timeshare after last season Chubba Hubbard emerged as Carolina's lead back. Sanders rushing prop is nearly half of Chubba's 45.5 yard rushing line. This also looks like a good matchup against a suspect Chargers defense that will be traveling across the country. The Panthers should be more competitive at home and Sanders projects to get 10-12 carries in a competitive game environment.
Dobbins was begging for more targets when in this system in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson's wasn't big on checkdowns and the horizontal passing game but Justin Herbert did it a ton with Austin Ekler. Dobbins has similar wiggle and I expect him to rush for 75+ yards, anyway. The Chargers want to bully opponents with their backs. This is who they are now and the Panthers will comply just fine. I think he goes over this rushing alone
Dobbins was a dervish in Greg Roman's run scheme in Baltimore but was early hurt. He tore apart the Raiders in the second in Week 1, he has big-play ability and Carolina just got shredded by the Saints multi-pronged rush attack in Week 1. This is about road-grading people for the Chargers now under this staff, not showing off Justin Herbert. And Dobbins is the primary fulcrum now. Get used to it. I will sprinkle on 100+ scrimmage yards with Dobbins. Scouts I talk to believe Chargers OL is plenty stout now. Thery are too physical for Panthers.
The lookahead line for this game was Chargers -3.5 before the Panthers laid a massive egg, and as a result of that game I've adjusted the Panthers down from my expectations they would be below average to tied for the worst rating in the league. But even at that number, when you bake in home field then the Chargers have to be two points better than average, which would make them a top 10 team, for this line to make sense. It's brutal backing Carolina after what we saw in Week 1, but this is a fade on an inflated number more than anything else.
This Chargers team has a new identity and it will work expertly vs an overwhelmed opponent here. The multiplicity of the Saints run attack - which gouged the Panthers for 4.9/carry - is nothing compared to what Jim Harbaugh will throw at them. Harbaugh is 9-4 ATS when traveling his teams to East Coast from Cali and he's 39-24-2 ATS in the NFL. Justin Herbert just needs to manage the game and he is 24-9-1 ATS when his defense gives up 24 or less ... I like his chances of that here.