I think Davis will play a lot for the Jaguars, but this passing offense figures to filter through Christian Kirk and Evan Engram with rookie Brian Thomas picking up some shot plays and crossing routes. What's left for Davis? The matchup will also be difficult assuming the Dolphins perimeter cornerbacks are healthy. I like the plus-odds on this one.

The Dolphins are 13-4 at home under Coach Mike McDaniel and 6-1 in September overall under him. No Bradley Chubb or Odell Beckham Jr. isn't ideal for the Fins, but pass-rusher and 2021 first-round pick Jaelan Phillips is good to go after a season-ending injury last November. Miami usually is almost unstoppable offensively at home, and the Jags are breaking in a new defensive scheme under new DC Ryan Nielsen. We push, we push but the other books are all at 3.5.

This should be a good game that will give off playoff vibes. Where the Dolphins pose a problem in this matchup is with both the timing, speed and coordination of their offense. Expect them to be able to make this game a track meet and force the Jags offense to maintain a level of consistency throughout the game that we have not seen yet from them.

Travis Etienne is the unquestioned No. 1 RB on the Jaguars and shouldn't have many TDs vultured by QB Trevor Lawrence, who had four rushing scores in 2023 while Etienne had 11 plus one more receiving. I do think the Jags will score plenty Sunday on a Dolphins defense that lost a few key guys from 2023 and has a few others iffy due to injury.

Mike McDaniel likes to come out throwing the ball all over the place and hunting maximum yardage. They love playing in the heat early in the season and in Week 1-4 in two years with McDaniel, Tua leads the NFL with 13.2 yards/completion and 8.3 yards/attempt, while averaging 292 passing yards/game. Even with a shaky offensive line Tua will get rid of the ball quickly and they will try to run a suspect Jags defense ragged all over the field. After landing a mega-deal in the offseason, I’ll be playing him in alt markets 300+.

If you want to lay the points with the Fins or just go over for the game total, I get it. Sept games in Miami are notoriously hot and sticky (MIA 10-2 ATS last 2 years when it’s 80-plus): Fins average 33 PPG in those conditions under Mike McDaniel, with 6.9 yards/play and whopping 36% TD rate (136 drives). MIA games average 53.25 points in those conditions. Tua has 116.2 rating (29 TD – 7 INT) and Tyreek Hill has 96 grabs for 1597 yards with 10 TDs in 12 games as a Fin in those conditions. JAX defense in trouble in a track meet in a sauna. (JAX 2-3 ATS in last 5 when 80+). Miami avg 33.3 PPG Weeks 1-6 last 2 years

The Dolphins' offense started fast last year in a 36-34 win over the Chargers, and I'm expecting another seaon-opening outburst against Jacksonville. The Jaguars' secondary is terrible. Tua Tagovailoa gets rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize Jacksonville's admittedly stout pass rush. Tagovailoa's weapons are ridiculous: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jonnu Smith and impressive rookie Malik Washington, among others.

Miami has proven to have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the league in recent years, and they're a rare team who should be getting at least three points for HFA. So this line makes sense if the Dolphins and Jaguars are even, and even with Miami's early injuries, I can't see that making sense. I have this line at Miami -6, so I love the value of giving three and pushing if the Dolphins only win by a field goal.