With backfield mate Raheem Mostert ruled out with an injury, the explosive rookie will be the showcased RB for Miami. Although bruising veteran Jeff Wilson will likely get some of the workload, Achane's over in rushing attempts appears the safest among the many individual props he could clip Sunday.

Home field traditionally is worth three points, so the spread here suggests these teams are dead-even. No way. The Ravens are the best team in the AFC, perhaps the NFL, with the league's stingiest defense and the leader-in-the-clubhouse MVP (Lamar Jackson) at QB. Miami has not fared well against top foes, its win last week over Dallas serving as an exception. The theory that Baltimore will be troubled by a short turn-around after a cross-country trip from its win over the 49ers on Monday is debatable. With the No. 1 playoff seed in the conference within sight, motivation should be plentiful.

This one feels like a public fade, considering WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert are both out for Miami, but their absences hardly affected the spread. The Ravens could be due for a letdown spot following their statement win over the 49ers, while the Dolphins are still fighting to lock up the AFC East.

As the effective Dallas Cowboys of the AFC, we have little faith in the Dolphins to win a big game on road, especially after they failed so resoundingly at Buffalo and Philadelphia earlier in the season, and lost in Germany vs. the Chiefs, a result not looking as good with KC's recent struggles. True, Miami did win at Baltimore early last season, but the Ravens look to mean business right now after taking care of the high-flying 49ers with dispatch on Monday night, wrecking Brock Purdy with 4 picks. Tua has been duly warned what might await, and we have no desire to buck Baltimore until further notice. Play Ravens

The Dolphins (11-4) head to Baltimore looking for their first road win against a winning team. They beat the Cowboys last week but the Cowboys at home and away are two different stories. Miami lost three weeks ago at home to the Titans as 13.5-point favorites. The Ravens (12-3) come off an impressive shutdown of Brock Purdy and the 49ers in the 49ers house making a major statement. The Ravens could be in for a letdown after the big 49ers win but I see the other angle of securing home-field throughout the playoffs as a bigger deal. Ravens to cover.

The Ravens have dropped to -3 favorites and I will buy them now. A win over the Dolphins would clinch the #1 seed in the AFC, and secure home field advantage. I expect the atmosphere to be raucous in Baltimore. The Dolphins will be without WR Jaylen Waddle, which should allow Baltimore to scheme better against Tyreek Hill. I expect many pro bettors will be on the Dolphins with the points, but I am going to continue betting against this team when they face top-tier competition. Lamar Jackson can lock up the MVP award with a good performance here. The Ravens are Top 5 in offensive, defensive and special teams DVOA. As only field goal favorites at home, Baltimore is worth a bet.

A bit of an obscure one here, but with Jaylen Waddle out against the Ravens, I think his targets get distributed among several different pass catchers. While Cedric Wilson is likely to get a few more looks, it's the Tight End position that will also get some more production. Smythe has been very efficient over the last two games catching all 9 of his targets and surpassing this yardage mark in two games in a row. I think he's due to surpass it again even in a tough matchup.

The No 1 seed is on the line, the Ravens must stay balanced against this defense and their backfield is depleted. In close games down the stretch 10-plus carries has been the norm for Lamar. He went over this in three straight prior to the blowout of the 49ers (eliminating his legs in the second half). I see kneel downs as well to help us. Ravens win this and Week 18 doesn't matter and they can sit the QB if they want. He will be ready to take off and go with his RBs likely stuck in neutral vs this elite defense

The Ravens are going to have to find ways to sustain drives against a very stout Fins D. And they lack speed and explosion in the run game outside of Lamar. RBs combined for 19 carries for 58 yards last week and 14 carries for 28 yards vs Miami last year. Lamar ran less at SF because the lead got to big so soon, but I don't see that happening here. Even on just 7 carries last week - his lowest since before Halloween - he got to 45 yards last week. I see more designed runs here and true keepers, not just scrambles. Went for 119 vs Miami last year and will probably break another one for 30-plus like last week.

Likely is over this in 3 straight and had 40 yards in his other start since Mark Andrews went down. Most of that has come on the road, and I like him to see even more volume at home. He gets first looks in short and intermediate stuff and the Dolphins pass rush and blitz could be an issue here. Likely shows up a lot in quick pass and RPOs, however and has quickness for YAC and an high-point downfield throws. Lamar's connection with his WRs is hit or miss, with low catch% in general but Likely is grabbing 2 of every 3 targets and I anticipate him seeing upwards of 10 balls in this match-up.

This is baked into the Ravens cake. Lamar isn't scoring on the ground at all much the last 10 weeks, Keaton Mitchell and JK Dobbins are gone and The Gus Bus has been on time most of the season. This has cashed in 7 of the last 9 and 4 of the Ravens last 5 home games (with 6 TDs in that span). After a little hiatus around the Ravens bye week, Edwards has scored in two straight. He's a big reason why this is a top 8 RZ offense and I don't see that changing here.

If the Ravens weren't so well coached I might worry about a letdown off that Niners beatdown on a short week, but with the chance to clinch the AFC's top seed and rest the starters in Week 18, can't imagine there will be one. Miami has not proven it can go on the road and beat the best NFL teams. Jaylen Waddle is almost surely out, which likely means double teams all day for Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins are a precision, speed-based on offense, You take out one of Hill/Waddle/Mostert and they are in trouble, especially on the road and against a top defense. Don't have a TE to fall back on. You take out 2 of that group and the third is maybe at 75% and a bit of a decoy and it's a really big ask. I'm getting on this early expecting it to be more like 5.5/6 by Sunday. Ravens D got exposed by Miami last year and can secure the top seed at home. No letdown here. They keep rolling up 30 points, or close to it. Fins on road vs no 1 sack team without their starting center is a problem.