Think the Tommy Cutlets train might deboard on Sunday. Really was hoping for O/U 40 but no go. Derek Carr is without his No. 1 WR Chris Olave and his right tackle.

Saints are not good at home, Carr is not good anywhere and Saints offense is very beat up. Giants can keep this close and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game. Saints since Week 7 are allowing 5 yards per carry and they will get road graded here. Saints are bad in the RZ on both sides of the ball and Giants are playing loose with nothing to lose. NYG D has stepped it up and they will turn Carr over here.

What to make of these G-Men, who have unexpectedly won three in a row to climb within a game of the last NFC playoff spot with four to play. Amazingly, unheralded rookie QB Tommy DeVito seems to be gaining confidence and trust of his teammates, with Brian Daboll shrewdly implementing a game plan that takes advantage of DeVito's mobility. With Saquon Barkley still around the provide balance, the Giants looked like a real NFL offense for the first time all season in the Monday win over the Pack. But it's the esprit de corps that we like with the Giants, something that seems totally absent with the joyless Saints, reduced to bickering on-field vs. the Panthers last week. Play Giants

Saints wideout Rashid Shaheed returns after missing the past two games with a thigh injury. He wasn't on the injury report at all, so he's a full-go. The status of No. 1 wideout Chris Olave (ankle) remains in doubt. Expect Olave to sit, but even if he doesn't, Shaheed's explosiveness should pay off versus the Giants' blitz-heavy scheme.

The Saints are still alive in the playoff race and could take first place solo in the dreadful NFC South with losses Sunday by the Falcons and Bucs. This is a rough matchup for the suddenly surging Giants, who should see their three-game winning streak snapped.

Wan'dale Robinson made huge plays in last Monday's upset of the Packers, including the 32-yard grab that set up the Giants' winning field goal. But Robinson typically catches the ball close to the line of scrimmage and he has only surpassed this prop total three times in 11 games. The Saints allow the eight-fewest explosive pass plays.

The Saints offense under Carr is a mess and the defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing both Carolina and Detroit 200+ rush yards in those matchups. The NY Game plan should be simple- feed your big dog in Saquon Barkley. Tommy Cutlets and the Giants could squeak out another upset but I'll take the points.

The Saints' passing offense has hit the skids and if WR Chris Olive (game-time decision with a high ankle sprain) is absent, points will be hard to come by. The unit could be vulnerable to turnovers against the league leader in takeaways. Giants rookie QB Tommy DeVito has defied expectations with three straight outright wins and has seven TD passes in four starts. You wouldn't choose the kid over counterpart Derek Carr in the long run, but now? Maybe. New Orleans' notorious home-field edge has shrunk if its 1-5 ATS record is any indication.

Lost in the DeVito hoopla is how well he runs. He ran a ton of Wildcat stuff when first rushed into duty, he is not afraid to duck and run and he's facing an elite passing D, on a fast track, in a loud dome against a terrible run defense. He ran 10 times last week and could again here. Even Trevor Lawrence on a bum leg in a short week at New Orleans ran 8 times for 59 yards. Russ, Bryce Young, Ridder, Bagent (70 yards), Dobbs all have sailed over this number. DeVito ran 7 times for 41 yards in last dome road game (Dallas). Saints are 30th in yards/scramble allowed (9.1) and are the third-most scrambled on team in NFL.

Barkley ended a long scoreless streak with 2 rushing TDs Monday night, and I love this matchup for him. Saints run D is terrible and they've allowed 8 rushing TDs since Week 7 and Giants embracing volume in the run game. Could also score on a screen pass, too. Barkley has 4 TDs in the last 3 games. Giants are playing loose and having fun. He might throw for a TD here on some razzle dazzle

Barkley is way over this in two of the last three games and I suspect he goes over this in rushing yards alone. But with his pass-catching ability I'll prioritize the scrimmage prop. Things get tougher for a rookie QB on the road and Barkley had 54 yards receiving alone in last road game. He's way over this in 4 of the 5 road games, with only Dallas the exception.

The script vs the Saints is pretty simple. Run the ball and run it a lot. It was the same vs the Packers last week and Barkley got 20 rushes at home. On the road, with a rookie QB, facing a Saints D that is No 1 in opposing QB rating and 3rd in INT ... but 31st in rushing D since Week 7, we all know it's time to feed Saquon. Carolina cant run the ball but committed to it last week against NO and road graded the Saints. Giants can do the same. And will do the same, with this guy leading the way.

The Saints just blew out an awful Panthers team at home, but they did it while recording just four yards per play. They were only up 14-6 midway through the fourth quarter by virtue of a blocked punt TD, then they started tacking on TDs once the Carolina offense failed to sustain drives on fourth down. The point is that they shouldn't be favored by six against anyone right now, and the Giants are legitimately punch with Tommy DeVito at QB. He's completed 72.2 percent of his passes over his last three starts while throwing no picks, and he proved to be a key part of the run offense in the Monday win as well. The Giants can compete in this matchup again.