CEH v Ne run D? Yep. Go under

Patriots are great vs the TE and no one else really winning for KC in the passing game. Chiefs bogging down in the RZ, lot of drops and tips and missed plays on the ball by their pass catchers mean INTs. Mahomes had thrown 6 in 6 road games and 3 of his last 4, overall.

We are playing this again. Zappe loves the screen game and checkdowns and Chiefs LB will be stretched here. Zeke showing good hands and vision lately and he's fresh after not seeing a ton of the ball before Stevenson got hurt. 13 targets the last two games and with so little else to count on passing the ball, playing a ball control game vs an Andy Reid/Mahomes offense, this should be a regular look for the QB

Mahomes has been tepid on the road, with a 90 rating and just 8 TDs to 6 INTS in 6 games. Facing a stout D here that will take away Kelce (NE has 3rd lowest opposing QB rating allowed to TEs) and force others to emerge, No Pacheco in the run game a big problem for Andy Reid. Chiefs are terrible against the run and Beluchick will run a ton here to bleed clock. KC only 13th in offensive TDs scored on the road and Pats only average 13 PPG. Teams are 18-8 to the under

The Patriots finally found some offense behind a three-TD performance from QB Bailey Zappe and a throwback outing from Zeke Elliott. The Chiefs "bounce-back" angle likely will be a popular one but, with the struggles they still have finding reliable WRs and sustaining drives, this feels like a one-score game.

The Chiefs enter amid their worst stretch since early 2021 having lost three of four and four of six. They are scoring 19.0 points per game over that span. Yet the Patriots are so much worse having lost five of six while averaging 11.3 points. New England's losses and offensive struggles have largely come against bad teams, while Kansas City has mostly faced quality opponents or played in tough environments. The Chiefs have covered two straight against the Pats. Their defense struggled at Lambeau Field but has otherwise been solid. New England has only suffered three double-digit losses, but Patrick Mahomes is angry and the D will give KC plenty of chances on offense. (The Chiefs are a great teaser leg through 7 and 3.)

The Chiefs look to break a two-game losing streak. Kansas City has struggled as a home favorite (1-6 ATS) but they are okay as a road favortie (3-3 ATS). The Patriots are 3-10 ATS for the entire season and 1-5 ATS at home. The is Mahomes versus Zappe.

I wonder what this line would be if the Chiefs had won last week and Bailey Zappe hadn't shredded the Steelers. I think the line should be at least 10 points in spite of the Chiefs looking average this entire season. I anticipate a big game from Mahomes and the Chiefs defense to be all over Bailey Zappe. If you're looking for Zeke and the running game to be the path to a Patriots cover, I simply think you're asking too much.

The Chiefs have averaged just 19 points during the last six games, a stretch where they've only gone 2-4. That's why the total is as low as it is here and the spread looks lower than you'd expect, as there's a believe a good Patriots defense could hold this team in check at home. Maybe they do, but I don't see how the Patriots score points. The Chiefs have a much better defense than the Steelers, holding the Dolphins, Eagles and Bills to 21 points or less during their down stretch. I'd be surprised if the banged-up Patriots offense gets to 10 points here, and I expect the Chiefs to be able to score 20-plus.