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The Jaguars have been on quite a run -- really dating back to last season -- while the 49ers have been absolutely floundering of late. Will those trends continue Sunday? With Deebo Samuel back and the bye week coming at the perfect time, San Francisco should be able to retool its passing game and find success against one of the NFL's worst secondaries. That should provide the balance Christian McCaffrey needs to be effective on the ground. Jacksonville has also been given extra preparation time and rest given the bye, but this feels like a great buy-low spot for the Niners against a Jags team that has largely beat up on inferior competition and a struggling Bills team.
San Francisco has lost its last three games. Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are both active today. Williams being back could be the difference in this game to help the Niners get back on track and protect Brock Purdy.
In spite of some recent interception woes, Brock Purdy continues to be highly efficient while picking up plenty of chunk plays through the passing game. He has hit this number in 5 of 6 games and this week gets Deebo Samuel back in the mix (and it's likely Trent Williams comes back as well). Jaguars don't offer much in the pressure rate department, so Purdy should have a clean pocket more often than not.
Both the Jags and the 49ers have explosive playmakers on offense. Where the Jags have the advantage is with Trevor Lawrence and his ability to connect on the deep ball. Yes, the 49ers have bolstered their pass rush with DE Chase Young and he will have an impact for sure, if it comes down to making plays consistently in the passing game, you have to trust Lawrence over Purdy.
The Niners limped into their bye week having lost and failed to cover three in a row, which is news because SF had won 15 in a row in reg season previously and dropped only one of those vs. the line. While Deebo Samuel is expected to return for the offense, it's the defense causing concerns lately, and if DC Steve Wilks (who moves down to the field this week) is really up to the task. Meanwhile, the Jags are the hot ones now with wins and covers in five straight. Play Jags
The Jaguars have only lost two games since October 2022 to teams not named the Chiefs, yet they're 3-point home 'dogs. The Niners have the stars and clout, but despite famously blowing out Dallas, they've gone 2-3 vs. teams with a winning record. Have defenses figured out Brock Purdy? Trust Doug Pederson and grab the points at home.
Coming off a bye and a three-game losing streak, it's fair to expect the 49ers to give a performance in line with their status as a top NFC contender. The return of WR Deebo Samuel will help with the flow of the offense, and SF defense should get pressure on Jags QB Trevor Lawrence.
I don't think you'll find a time this season where the 49ers stock is lower than it is right now and the Jaguars stock is certainly quite high. If we take the stock/vibes away, we're still looking at what I think is a superior 49ers team coming off a much needed bye. Add a healthy Deebo Samuel and newly acquired Chase Young and this team should be firing on all cylinders. We'll need to monitor Trent Williams status, but even without him, I love this spot for the 49ers and I think they cover.
Jacksonville has excelled against the run (3rd best) and suffered against the pass (3rd worst). Purdy has exceeded this total in five of his last six games and should have wide receiver Deebo Samuel and potentially left tackle Trent Williams back on Sunday. I can see Purdy topping 260 yards in what should be a fun game in Florida this weekend.
The last 3 weeks have been brutal on the 49ers, losing 3 straight and failing to score more than 17 pts in all 3 of those losses. However, I'm betting on a Niners bounce back offensively. Prior to the last 3 weeks, SF routinely scored over 30 ppg. The defense should improve with Chase Young to the front and create more pressure/ trouble on Trevor Lawrence. Why this is key to the Niners offensive success is that Brock Purdy's kryptonite seems to be when they Niners are playing from behind late in the game. The improved defense should help Purdy get back on track in both confidence and performance. Oh and Deebo Samuel back in the line-up is huge. Niners over 23.5.