The return of Saquon Barkley should help provide a needed boost to the Giants; lifeless offense. Backup QB Tyrod Taylor and coach Brian Daboll both have ties to Buffalo, and the latter's could make a difference. Daboll has insight to the Bills' organization and, at the very least, the Bills won't be looking to pour it on against the coach who is credited for the development of QB Josh Allen.

I at least want a reason to check in on this -- why wasn't it flexed!?!? -- and wow 16 points is just a lot. I'm sure I could look up how favorites of at least 16 points fare but you will just have to trust me that they fail to cover much more often than they do. The Giants honestly might be better off with Tyrod Taylor at QB right now. And Saquon Barkley is back.

I don't expect much from Tyrod Taylor tonight, but I anticipate plenty of opportunities with easy short area throws in the middle of the field. Robinson is the best New York has with respect to dynamic players in space and I anticipate the coaching staff acknowledging that with the gameplan. The only issue with this play is that Robinson had a slight knee injury early in the week, but by all accounts he's good to go tonight.

This price is very steep, and if you shop around you can find Over 2 TD passes in the -120 range (pushing if Allen throws two). But against this Giants' defense -- which prompts opponents to throw at a 70 percent rate in neutral-game situations -- I like Allen to throw at least two scoring passes. We know the Bills do not take their foot off the gas; they've scored 38, 37 and 48 against the bad defenses they've faced. The Giants certainly qualify. Back Allen in this dream matchup.

Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves to blitz and plays a lot of man coverage, which could lead to a big rushing performance from Josh Allen. The Giants haven't played a lot of running QBs, but Arizona's Josh Dobbs gained 41 yards on three carries in Week 2 vs. New York. Look for Allen to run for 30-plus yards in an easy Buffalo win.

Spreads greater than two touchdowns are valid only under unusual circumstances. The absence of injured Giants QB Daniel Jones does not qualify as one. The offense has been unproductive with him, and his replacement is capable Tyron Taylor, who started for three full seasons -- with the Bills. A 13-year veteran, he will not be intimidated. What's more, he should have RB Saquon Barkley back in the huddle. Buffalo sent two key defensive players -- DT Daquan Jones and LB Matt Milano -- to injured reserve this week. Taylor gets a depleted defense to probe.

A bit of a homecoming of sorts for Brian Daboll, and it's safe to say he wishes it was under better circumstances. His team is banged up on offense, at QB, RB and along the offensive line. Bills offense is an explosive one but they also come in with some major injuries on the defense as well. The problem is that the Giants don't have enough firepower to take advantage. This looks like a redux of the Dolphins game for Big Blue.

The Giants are a hot mess right now, ranking bottom two in yards per play on both offense and defense. By all rights they should get blown out by good teams, particularly on the road. But the Bills defense deserves a major downgrade with long-term injuries to Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones over the last two weeks. Jones gets the least attention of the three, but he's PFF's No. 3 interior defender on the season. Even with all the Giants' injuries, I believe Brian Daboll can figure out a way to keep this inside the number against his former team, potentially with a backdoor cover.

The Giants will likely be without Daniel Jones in this game, but it's not like the offense can get any worse as it's last in yards per play on the season. The Giants defense is 31st in yards per play, and the Bills should return to 30+ point territory this week. Even without Jones, I think the Giants will do their part to push this one over the total due to the major injuries at every level of the Buffalo defense, which was already getting destroyed by opposing rushing attacks. I'll likely be playing a lot of Buffalo Overs for the remainder of the season, and I'm not going to miss this opportunity at a relatively low number.