The Buccaneers continue to get a lot of credit for their record without it being put in context, while the Lions seemingly remain undervalued despite showing an ability to win with either their offense or their defense. The Lions have a significant advantage up front offensively, and they should have all of their horses back for Jared Goff to thrive. Asking Baker Mayfield to keep up shot for shot against the Detroit defense is a play on which I would rely. This might be lower scoring then expected, but the Lions should prevail by margin.

I'm taking the Bucs+3 versus the Detroit Lions. The Lions have the far better offense however my model has Tampa Bay with the team with the far better defense. I have Tampa Bay defense ranked 3rd best in the NFL. Take the home dog with the better defense.

Pricy so we'll do a half unit but the Lions are wearing Montgomery down to the bone in usage and Jahmyr Gibbs is out again so that means even more carries.

Mayfield is taking on a Lions team that forces offenses to abandon the run. That should be fine with the Bucs, who are coming off the bye and will have Mike Evans back on the field just in time to see a Lions defense that sees quarterbacks average 39 pass attempts per game against them. Actually, every single team to play Detroit has thrown at least 36 passes! Mayfield should be busy in this one, especially since I don't expect running back Rachaad White to have a particularly good game.

Put the Lions in another uniform and this line is a lot bigger, people are still just hesitant to buy in on Detroit as an elite team. But they are REALLY good and dominant on both sides of the ball in the trenches. The Bucs are a bit of a paper tiger and don't have a great win but got blown out by the one good team they played in Philly. Detroit rolls here.

The Lions have dominated the LOS both offensively and defensively this season. Detroit's run defense impressively ranks first in rushing success rate and the Lions have surrendered just 248 yards to opposing RBs through five games this season, good for just 49.6 yards per game. The Lions havent allowed a RB to eclipse 43 yards and have faced Kenneth Walker, Isaiah Pacheco, Bijan Robinson, and Aaron Jones. Tampa RB Rachaad White has been the least efficient RB in the NFL this season. This is a significant mismatch.

The Lions dealt with several key absences last week, with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Brian Branch among those sidelined. It didn't matter; Detroit wiped the floor with a bad Panthers team, going up 35-10 before the Panthers tacked on two meaningless TDs. The Bucs seem better than the Panthers but the Vikings gave the game away in Week 1, the Eagles stomped Tampa Bay in Week 3 and the Bears and Saints (with a very limited Derek Carr) didn't prove much of a test. The Lions are closer to the Eagles than any of those other teams and rank top six in yards per pass and yards per run on defense. I think the market is overvaluing Tampa; this line should be 4.5.