The 49ers are the best team in football this year – at least to this point – but this pick is more about San Francisco’s history limiting Dak Prescott. Then consider that the Cowboys are struggling offensively in the red zone and defensively stopping the run, and the Niners have a couple key advantages in the game. Dallas is going to knock Brock Purdy out of the pocket a bit, but Christian McCaffrey should keep the defensive front seven honest for most of the game. This is on the verge of hitting -3, and you should wait as long as you can to get that (even at -115 juice) as this should be a close game.

If Pollard clips this, the bulk of it will likely have to come through the passing game. San Francisco's No. 2-ranked run defense (66 ypg) will be determined to shut him down on early downs and put the game in the hands of Dak Prescott, who threw two interceptions when these clubs met in last year's NFC playoffs.

Two awesome teams but the Niners seem to have the Cowboys' number in recent years. The top-ranked Dallas D has one major flaw: It allows opponents to average 4.6 yards per carry. So as long as Christian McCaffrey doesn't limp off ...

Ferguson has gone way Over this number in each of the past two games. He entered Week 5 ranked 2nd in tight end target rates league-wide at 30.5%.

CeeDee Lamb has only hit this total once this year, but that's largely due to the Cowboys grabbing huge leads early in games. The 49ers defense is excellent but they have shown vulnerability in the passing game. This line is about 8 yards too low thanks to game scripts that have limited the need to utilize CeeDee and it's a good time to take advantage.

Prescott has had at least 34 pass attempts in each of his past three games. I mention 34, which is a loss here, to include last week when Dallas was blowing out New England and he still threw a ton! My expectation is that the Dallas offensive line will give Prescott enough time to throw. The 49ers have seen quarterbacks throw at least 41 times in 3 of their past 4 games - the only time it didn't happen was in Week 3 when the Giants basically gave up on a Thursday night. The kicker? Last year in the playoffs against San Francisco, Prescott threw 37 times and the year before when they met he threw it 43 times.

Ferguson has become Dak Prescott's security blanket, just like Dalton Schultz and Jason Witten before him. Ferguson has five or more catches in each of his past two games and seven targets in three of four. He's a perfect outlet for Prescott to throw to when pressure arrives, and make no mistake before the Niners are going to put a lot of pressure on Prescott this week. In fact, Ferguson has the second-highest target per route run rate of any Cowboy when Prescott is pressured. It should lead to at least five catches for Ferguson. The juice is worth the squeeze.

The concern in the Bay Area about QB Brock Purdy’s game was his ability to throw the long ball, but that concern has abated after Purdy completed a couple of deep balls last week vs. the Cards when en route to completing a franchise-record 92.5% of his passes (20 of 21). Meanwhile, after facing a succession of limited foes, the Cowboys now must contend with Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, off of his latest masterpiece (177 total yards and 4 TDs vs. the Big Red). Remember, Nick Bosa and the Niner defense have shut down Dak Prescott the last two years in the playoffs during a pair of lower-scoring SF wins.

My first thought when I saw the spread was that this must be a neutral site game. Is this game played in London? No, it’s in San Francisco as I thought but why is the spread so low? I’m looking at the 49ers being 3-points better than the Cowboys with no home field attached and then I add on 2-to-3 points for home field giving me up to 6-points in this game, but I only have to lay -3.5 at home with arguably the best team in the NFL? Because the number is so low in my estimation, the money-line (-180) offers the best value, but laying 3.5 at home is still a bargain.

These teams have combined for seven dominant wins out of eight games played, but that one Cowboys loss isn't the sole reason I don't think they're in the same class as the 49ers. San Francisco has been elite across the board on both sides of the ball, while Dallas is leaning heavily on its pass defense and looks average in yards per play otherwise. Their points scored total is helped by the defense and special teams scoring touchdowns half as often as the offense, which has the same number of offensive TDs as the Texans, Buccaneers and Cardinals. The 49ers run game should excel in this matchup, and the 49ers defense can handle the version of the Cowboys offense we've seen to date.