The Bucs looked solid but unspectacular in winning their first two, but they have now lost four of their last five and are officially in desperation mode. The fire Tom Brady showed in last week's disastrous loss to Carolina should inspire the club to a spirited effort Thursday. The erratic Ravens are healthier but they barely squeezed by in close wins against the Bengals and Browns in recent weeks. That level of performance would result in a loss Thursday against a wounded opponent.

The idea in picking the Buccaneers here would be that this is their floor -- they are undervalued at home after being embarrassed by the Panthers last week -- and Tom Brady being Tom Brady will not lose three straight games. I don’t see it. This is a massively flawed Tampa Bay team led by a great quarterback who is aging out behind an offensive line that can’t protect him and create time for plays to develop downfield. The Bucs have seven players ruled out due to injury, while the Ravens are getting key playmaker Mark Andrews back. Baltimore been horrible to watch in the fourth quarter allowing multiple backdoor covers and comebacks already this season, but it’s the right side even on the road in a short week.

I was somewhat leaning Baltimore, but no chance I'm doing that now with five experts all on the Ravens. If Tom Brady can't get well against that bad defense that is missing Calais Campbell -- and Brady gets Julio Jones back -- then TB12 should hang 'em up and go fix things with Gisele.

The market has moved considerably toward the Bucs in the lead-up to this game, and I completely understand it as my power ratings made this line Bucs -2. I didn't jump on Tampa Bay early in the week with so many health issues on both sides that needed to be cleared up, and even though I'd say the injury report favored the Ravens, the line has moved considerably. Many of Baltimore's questionable players practiced in full Wednesday, while a plethora of Bucs were straight ruled out. Tom Brady struggling in primetime in recent years combined with the injury situation makes me think Baltimore is the right side at this number.

Three days ago this line was Ravens -1.5, now you can get Ravens +2, yet there hasn’t been any big changes to the teams’ situations. This game really comes down to the Bucs' ability to run the ball; currently, they are last in the league with 3 yards per carry. With that number being so low, they are forced to pass on 68% of their plays. Baltimore’s defense is third best in the league with eight interceptions this season. The combination of the Ravens' interceptions and the Bucs being forced to throw is what led our SportslineAI model to call a close game with a 23-22 Ravens win. Still, take the +2 buffer as they are going against Tom Brady. 

The Buccaneers have lost four of their last five games. The first two were respectable losses to equally good teams, but the last two were horrible defeats as double-digit favorites against two of the lowest-rated teams in the NFL. The two-week rating drop for Tampa Bay is almost four points, a drastic dip from the usual adjustments without a QB injury. The Bucs have rushed for 75 yards or fewer in their last six games, and the execution was at its worst Sunday at Carolina. Perhaps they play better at home this week, and the Ravens are prone to giving up big plays in the fourth quarter, but the Bucs are in a world of hurt and will have trouble catching Lamar Jackson. Take the Ravens to cover.

The Buccaneers' offense is a mess right now, and going home won't be the cure-all for that. Defensively, Tampa Bay likely won't have safety Antoine Winfield, who left Sunday's 21-3 loss at Carolina with a concussion. Winfield is a difference-maker. When he exited, Carolina began poudning the Bucs on the ground. The Ravens have played better than their 4-3 record. Look for Lamar Jackson to improve to 13-1 as a starter versus NFC teams.

After two losses in which they favored by a combined 22.5 points, the Bucs awakened Monday as rare underdogs in a home game. They could use several practice days and film sessions to fix the myriad problems but won’t get it this week with a Thursday play date. The Ravens average nine more points per game than the host, and their three defeats came by a combined 11 points. Baltimore has repaired its leaky defense and, over the past three weeks, has ranked among the league’s stingiest. Tampa Bay’s rock-bottom league status in rushing yards per game (64.4) does not bode well.