This is how it was supposed to be for the 49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo at QB throwing darts to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. The move to start Trey Lance eventually was going to backfire. The bottom line is that Garoppolo is a winner. The entire Lance thing baffled me. The Broncos haven’t found their groove yet with Russell Wilson. Coach Nathaniel Hackett is second-guessing himself every Monday, the offense isn’t executing and the secondary is banged up. Take the 49ers to cover.

The 49ers have the coaching edge with Kyle Shanahan against Nathaniel Hackett, but that's about it. The Broncos have the better quarterback, weapons and comparable defense. Russell Wilson used to to torture the 49ers when he was with Seattle and he should keep doing so and Denver's home-field edge, especially in prime time, is worth more than it's credited in this spread.

The 49ers got a short-term upgrade at quarterback with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over for Trey Lance, and that plus the Broncos offense struggling again vs. Houston has sent this line 4.5 points off the lookahead. But is the Denver offense struggling? It ranks top seven in yards per play in both rushing and passing but wilts in the red zone, a deficiency I think can be corrected. Jerry Jeudy and Pat Surtain look on track to play, and Nathaniel Hackett has hired a game management coach to help him during the action. I think this Denver team is better than what we've seen to date, and Russell Wilson is 8-2 SU vs. Kyle Shanahan's 49ers. Love teasing Denver, but they'll win this game outright.

With Jimmy Garoppolo as starter, the 49ers got to the NFC title game last year and the Super Bowl two years prior. Granted, he was far from the main reason they made it that far -- but the Niners know who they are now, something they didn't know with Trey Lance. I think we see a more confident Niners team with Jimmy G and George Kittle both back in the fold. Maybe Russell Wilson steps up his play a bit in the primetime lights, but the Niners are the more talented team with the better coach, and have some comfort back on offense. Lay the point and a half.

Overlooked by the attention on the return of QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers lineup is the season debut of his teammate -- standout TE George Kittle, back from an injury. The combo need not hatch a ton of points. Denver's offense with new QB Russell Wilson has been a bust, particularly in the red zone. The Broncos have yet to register a TD in goal-to-go situations.The Niners' defense has been the NFL's stingiest through two weeks. The Broncos lead the league in a dubious category -- penalties committed (25).

This has been dropping so if I'm going to play the Under, may as well do it now above a potentially key number of 45. I actually do think the Niners are better off with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but we don't also have to worry about him rushing for a 28-yard touchdown like Trey Lance could have. Denver's offense has looked terrible so far as Nathaniel Hackett looks overmatched as a head coach/play-caller. As expected, the defense has been very good as has San Francisco's. I'll be a bit surprised if both teams get to 20 points here, but 24-20 or something like that works for me. The SL Model has 42 points being scored.

The 49ers are allowing 4.1 yards per play, lowest among teams that have played two games, and now visit a discombobulated Denver offense that could be without Jerry Jeudy (ribs). The Broncos have scored exactly 16 points in each of their two games under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Denver remains without star safety Justin Simmons and also might be without top corner Patrick Surtain, who left the Week 2 win with a shoulder injury. Jimmy Garoppolo, in the short term, is an upgrade over Trey Lance. Tight end George Kittle (groin) was held out of the easy win over Seattle, but it looks like he'll make his season debut in Denver. More good news for a 49ers team with lofty aspirations.