Typical Cowboys public money has pushed this number way too high. No Tony Pollard for Dallas and that does matter a bit. While I think the Cowboys win, I can't not take this many points on the WFT at home (although it probably will be at least half Cowboys fans in Maryland).

I like riding hot teams, and Washington is a hot team. Washington has won four in a row and hosts division-leading Dallas on Sunday. Trailing by two games with five games remaining, Ron Rivera's team badly needs this victory if it hopes to win the NFC East. A highly motivated -- and hot -- Washington team keeps this close and has a big chance at an upset.

Just as it did last season, the Washington Football team has put itself in playoff position. Washington has won four straight games but has seen a dip in offensive production in their last two. Expect the Cowboys to use playing consecutive Thursday games to their advantage. Take the Cowboys to remain unblemished against the spread in their division this season.

Dallas is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings at Washington, but this Week 14 meeting is different. Washington has won and covered in its last four games. It has momentum, the home crowd and playoff hopes in this spot. The Cowboys have the No. 1 offense but have lost three of their last five after a sizzling start. I’m on Washington to keep rolling, I took the points.

Not feeling the WFT in this matchup despite its four wins in a row. The offense is hardly dynamic, the defense missing key components. Dallas righted its ship last Thursday with a win at New Orleans and regains two D-Linemen from injury. Because of a banged-up backfield, QB Dak Prescott might throw more than he prefers, but this opponent is ideal for that. Prescott has tossed 13 TD passes and one pick against Washington while carving out a 7-1 SU career record.

I've been riding Washington since its bye, but this game sets up better for Dallas. Even with Tony Pollard (foot) a gametime decision, Dak Prescott will be able to lean on a rested Ezekiel Elliott plus all three of his starting receivers. Expect the Cowboys to click offensively like they did to start the season. Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, playing together for the first time since Week 1, should join Micah Parsons in having big games versus Washington's banged-up offensive line. Definitely shop around for -4, but I'll still take the Cowboys -- who have covered seven straight vs. the NFC -- at the posted number on SportsLine.

The Dallas Cowboys haven't been the same over its last six games while Washington is playing nearly perfect. All credit to Ron Rivera and his team. That said, it changes this week. Dallas' offense is close to exploding again and I believe Sunday is when they do it. Dak Prescott is 10-2 ATS on extended rest (2-0 ATS this season) and has a better winning percentage against division opponents (78%) than Peyton Manning had (76%). Prescott is 19-7-1 ATS in his career against the NFC East and let's get that first number to 20.