So the Eagles are suddenly a running team. Somehow, Philadelphia has completely shifted its offensive philosophy in the middle of a season, and it enters this game the strongest its been on the ground with Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard all healthy. If the Eagles can stay patient against an extremely tough Saints run defense, the Jalen Hurts element should open some holes. New Orleans, meanwhile, is not only playing a backup quarterback but entering without Alvin Kamara and its two starting tackles. Taysom Hill is also hobbled. I'm on the worst number of the week, but a winless home team should be juiced at this opportunity to pick up its first of the season against a team that may struggle to score.

The Saints are desperate for a win after losing their last two games, and I think they respond in a big way on Sunday. The offense has actually looked better with Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Meanwhile the Eagles have lost five straight home games. I'm on New Orleans.

The run-oriented Eagles figure to have a rough time against New Orleans’ top-ranked rush defense. But the Saints would gladly trade places with their hosts. Versatile RB Alvin Kamara has been ruled out, along with OTs Terron Armstead and Ryan Macczyk. Joining them in street clothes is WR/RB Ty Montgomery. Taysom Hill, part of the two-headed Saints QB platoon in place of Jameis Winston, is questionable. Philly won’t need to pile up many scores for a cover.

Just out of principle, I'm taking the Eagles moneyline on a 2-point spread because I got burned on a similar number ATS on the Saints last week in Tennessee. Philly isn't great, but the Saints without Alvin Kamara are basically my Bears offensively and that's enough to fade them. Oh, and the team's two Pro Bowl offensive tackles are out, too. This is why I no longer make picks early in the week or appear on that Tuesday night NFL Early Edge show. Too much uncertainty then and I simply don't have informed opinions that early. Philly has cleared top tight end Dallas Goedert after he missed much of last week's win with a possible concussion. Also like the Under 43.

If you remember, this was the team Jalen Hurts faced in his first start last season, and he led the Eagles to a win over the red-hot Saints. Fast forward to this season and New Orleans isn't much better offensively than it was at this time last year, while Hurts is coming off one of his better performances. This is a critical game for both teams, as they still are in the mix for a playoff spot. I just trust Hurts more than I do Saints QB Trevor Siemian.

The Eagles offense has reinvented itself as an unstoppable rushing attack, rolling up 626 rushing yards while going 2-1 during a three-game stretch. But now they're up against a defense allowing the fewest yards per rush in the league. The Eagles were able to succeed defensively against a patchwork Denver offensive line, but that won't be the case against the Saints. And while back-to-back losses make it seem like New Orleans is falling apart, the Saints deserved to win against the Titans last week. This was a pick 'em on the lookahead, so if nothing has fundamentally changed, this should be nice value. I'm putting it in early to urge you to tease the Saints with another team (maybe the Cowboys) at this number.