This is more of a pick against the Panthers than it is for the Falcons. However, with Calvin Ridley being ruled out before kickoff and the line falling below the key number, it's a buy point. The truth is that Ridley has hardly been a factor for Atlanta this season, rarely getting more than four receptions and only scoring two touchdowns. So his absence is a bit of a shrug. This is about Matt Ryan over Sam Darnold and an Atlanta team that has averaged 29 points over its last three games. The better team at home with a spread under a field goal makes a lot more sense than the alternative.

No one wants to bet the Panthers after they've lost four straight and just mustered three points at the Giants. But it looks like Carolina is getting its starting left tackle, Cam Erving, and best linebacker, Shaq Thompson, back Sunday. Safety Jeremy Chinn will help limit Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have won two straight, but those were one-score games versus the lowly Jets and Dolphins. Look for a huge game from D.J. Moore and for the road team to cover for the fifth time in the last six Carolina-Atlanta matchups.

Prior to last week’s loss against the Giants, the Panthers had chances to beat the Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings. I expect Carolina to play better against a divisional foe in Atlanta. Take Carolina plus the points against the Falcons.

The injury to RB Christian McCaffrey and the sudden decline of the Panthers is the non-coincidence of the season. Carolina went 3-0 straight-up with him, 0-4 without. He remains on the shelf. The collateral damage includes QB Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions the past three weeks and will start despite being lifted last Sunday. The Rookie of the Year campaign for Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (282 catch yards the past two games) is in full swing. WR Calvin Ridley’s return last Sunday was a boon, and RT Kaleb McGary is removed from the Covid-19 list.

Atlanta is juiced to -125 at -2.5 so may as well just take the moneyline at -150 -- this probably will get to -3 by the end of today. While I still don't think the Falcons are very good, this is a total fade of the Fighting Sam Darnolds. He has proven that he's not an NFL starting QB with seven picks in the past four games, and Christian McCaffrey isn't coming to the rescue this week, either. In addition, Carolina's porous offensive line has likely lost another guy to injury in John Miller. Atlanta is getting a starting OL back in Kaleb McGary from the reserve/COVID-19 list.

I don't think the Falcons are a good team; their three wins were all against objectively bad teams and most of those games were close at the end. However, their offense is on track after a shaky start to the season, and I trust them to move the ball against a Panthers defense that hasn't been as good as they showed earlier in the year in easy matchups. And I have zero trust in the Panthers to move the ball with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Maybe they'll be able to run the ball effectively in Atlanta and take the pressure off Darnold, but with his confidence likely shaken after his benching against a bad Giants team, this line needs to be north of Falcons -3.