Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
This is a classic head vs. heart situation. The Ravens simply have the more talented team. They are better at key positions, more stacked along the lines and have coaching edge. However, the Raiders are finally experiencing their home opener, Las Vegas historically gets up for big games and it is looking across at a Baltimore team that has been hit hard with injuries. Ultimately, I trust the game planning of John Harbaugh (5-0 ATS in his last five Week 1 games), talent of Lamar Jackson and dominance of the Ravens defense (particularly the front seven, which could create havoc for Derek Carr) to get the job done. My bigger concern is a backdoor opportunity if Baltimore gets up big and rests its starters late.
The Raiders' defense will be improved this year due to several key additions plus coordinator Gus Bradley. He's the same coordinator who devised a plan while with the Chargers to shut down Lamar Jackson in the playoffs, when Jackson was a rookie. Look for the Raiders to play inspired before a raucous crowd and take this game to the wire.
The secondaries are the weak points of these defenses. This is going to make for a lot of passes and a high-paced game. The loss of Marcus Peters is really going to hurt the Ravens in this one. Both teams should be able to make scoring look easy.
There's no doubt the Ravens are the better team, but I've bet that the Raiders are competitive with a chance to win. QB Derek Carr has to hit a deep pass or two, RB Josh Jacobs (illness) needs to play and gain 100 yards on the ground and the Raiders' defense can't give up last year's average of 29.9 points. Those are a lot of needs, but I like Las Vegas to cover in a high-scoring game.
The Ravens basically lost their whole running back room, but their ability to run won’t be diminished as long as Lamar Jackson is in the backfield. They will obviously miss Marcus Peters but they have so much depth in their secondary that they traded their 5th round pick Shaun Wade because they didn’t have any roster space. The Raiders will be opening their new stadium but I have a feeling Raiders games in Vegas won’t really be home games for a season or two. The Raiders had one of the worst run defenses in the league last season and the Ravens are always prepared under Harbaugh and Lamar in Week 1. Josh Jacobs was downgraded to questionable last night with an illness and might not even play. Take the Ravens.
Baltimore has been plagued by injuries over the last two weeks, but that shouldn’t impact its chances to cover much. The Ravens still have one of the best secondaries in the league even without Marcus Peters (done for season) and should be able to out-scheme Las Vegas. John Harbaugh is 10-3 ATS in Week 1 and 9-4 ATS when his team has extra rest mid-season. Bottom line, when his guys are rested they usually cover. My model also has a slight edge, making this game closer to the -5 opening line. Take the Ravens to cover.
I think Baltimore is a much better team than Las Vegas, so I get this line; in fact, I thought it was a few points short a few weeks ago. But the Ravens have been struck hard by injuries during the preseason, and we saw that derail multiple teams last year that were expected to be pretty good on paper. Running backs are largely replaceable, but it doesn't help when you lose your top three guys in the span of two weeks. Throw in the Marcus Peters injury and Baltimore playing shorthanded at receiver, plus what should be an electric crowd for the Raiders' first game in Vegas with fans in the stands, and I think the value is with the home team.
Potentially huge news out of Ravens camp today in that the team fears that both star cornerback Marcus Peters and new starting running back Gus Edwards -- the No. 1 with JK Dobbins out for the season -- suffered torn ACLs in practice. Wow. Sometimes, you have to jump the lines when you hear breaking news like this. I actually was leaning Raiders and the points regardless because of the Ravens being so banged up at RB and receiver and it being the first Raiders home game in Vegas with fans.
To say that coach John Harbaugh gets the Ravens ready for season openers is an under statement. Baltimore has outscored its last four Week 1 opponents by a remarkable average of 41-5, with margins of victory at 32, 49, 44 and 20. While conventional thought suggest the Monday night home underdog side holds an edge, the theory did not stand up last year. Visitors went 12-5 straight up, with one of the wins achieved by Baltimore at Cleveland. Las Vegas overhauled much of its roster and the extreme makeover can pay off eventually, but the schedule-maker dealt the Raiders a rough card in the opener.
Don't overthink this one. The Baltimore Ravens are a better team offensively than Las Vegas and a much better team defensively than Las Vegas...oh and might have the best FG kicker in the league too. The Ravens have outscored its opponents 144-19 over the last three season openers, in fact they've won the last three by 30+ points each. Lamar Jackson has no problem playing on the road either, he's 13-4-1 ATS in his career. In case you need any further convincing, Baltimore has had the No. 1 rushing offense in back-to-back seasons. The Raiders rush D? Bottom 10. Take the Ravens.
Team Injuries









