The public has loaded up on the Bucs, blowing this spread up significantly to the largest number of any game in Week 1. That's likely reaction to the defending champions returning all their starters and the Cowboys entering the game without Zack Martin. However, Dallas is a different team with Dak Prescott starting, and Ezekiel Elliott is a far more effective rusher with him as the signal caller. The Cowboys also brought in Dan Quinn, who was at the helm of the Seahawks' terrific defenses not too long ago. Getting nearly two scores with an offense that has so many explosive playmakers makes for an attractive play. See if you can get +9.5 or even +10 before kickoff.

Tampa Bay’s scoring binge late in its Super Bowl run and the return of QB Dak Prescott for Dallas have generated a total of more than a half-hundred. This figure is 3.5 points higher than any other Cowboys-Bucs game. Prescott, though, has not played in 11 months and will suffer from the absence of All-Pro guard Zack Martin (COVID-19). Once the Bucs got rolling in Week 6 last season, they yielded just 20.6 ppg the rest of the way. The Cowboys have gone Under in all but one of their last five openers. New coordinator Dan Quinn has the chops to repair a dreadful defense.

My simulations (53.4) agree with the SportsLine simulations (56) on the Over 51.5 between two of the top 5 teams in terms of pace of play. The loss of Zack Martin likely means the Cowboys are going to give up the idea of establishing the run against this Tampa Bay defense. The exaggerated number of throwing plays should help the pace of play and preserve the game clock enough to see a potential shootout if Dallas is remotely close to form before Dak's injury. I'm going to trust the computers (and Tom Brady returning every starter) with the Over play to start the season in Tampa.

I would obviously feel much better about this pick if Zack Martin were playing, but the Cowboys All-Pro guard has been officially ruled out. Still believe that Dallas offense has more talent than Tampa Bay does, and the Cowboys defense should be improved with an upgrade at coordinator (Dan Quinn) and selecting stud linebacker Micah Parsons in the first round of the draft. FiveThirtyEight's QB-adjusted Elo forecast has the Bucs at -7, and I do tend to think they only win by a touchdown so we'll take the 8.5. For what it's worth, Tom Brady has failed to cover eight straight prime-time games (see news feed). He's also under .500 ATS in Week 1 games. Also like the Under.

I initially thought this line was where it should be based on my power ratings but was giving the edge to the Bucs with defending champs going 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Week 1 games. I had hoped good Dak Prescott news would move the line down to Bucs -7 and give us an even bigger edge, but it's instead ticked the other way after Zack Martin was ruled out due to a positive COVID-19 test. Consider that a preview of the unpredictable nature of the 2021 NFL season, where sudden, unexpected player absences will wreak havoc on line movement expectations. I'm still laying it with the Bucs and think they win by 10-plus here.

The Buccaneers ride an eight-game winning streak and they’ve got almost everyone back from their Super Bowl-winning team. The Cowboys have lots of variables that make them exciting for this opening spot, beginning with Dak Prescott and the offensive line being healthy. There also is speed from the receivers and a trimmer, seemingly more focused Ezekiel Elliott. But I believe the defense will be vastly improved after allowing a franchise record for most points scored in 2020. Take the points with the Cowboys.