Absolutely thrilled I sat back and waited on this game as the total has dropped from a high of 55 all the way to 51.5 -- and I doubt it gets lower. I like this even if Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are both out for L.A. (see news feed). The Raiders are down four defensive starters, and Las Vegas Overs are 9-3-1 this season. The Chargers, meanwhile, had allowed at least 27 points in nine straight games -- tying the longest such streak in the Super Bowl Era -- until holding the Falcons to 17 last week. The total has gone Over in the Chargers' last six on the road after consecutive home games. These teams scored a combined 57 points in Week 9. Surely they can get to at least 52 here.

Jumping on the Chargers now that we're getting the hook. The Raiders are missing four defensive starters and find themselves in the middle of another late-season collapse. They houldn't be laying over a field goal here. Look for Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry to have monster games and pick up the slack for the Chargers' missing wideouts.

Rod Marinelli might have preferred more favorable circumstances for his debut as the Raiders' defensive coordinator. Four starters have been scratched with injuries. Las Vegas can't count on the offense to bail it out either, what with WR Henry Ruggs III on the COVID-19 list and RB Josh Jacobs (ankle) gimpy. The Raiders have sandwiched a Houdini escape against the Jets around two straight-up defeats by a combined 44 points. While the Chargers do not win outright often, they can't shake the habit of losing by one score, so the three points are welcome.

The Raiders have been cashing Overs all season for bettors thanks to a defense that ranks 32nd in points per drive and an offense that's fifth in the same category. That was on display last week as Vegas and Indy combined for 71 points and 880 yards of offense. We can expect something similar in this game after four Raiders defenders were ruled out for the matchup. The Chargers defense just held the Falcons to 17 points but had given up at least 27 points in nine straight dating back to September. The Raiders should be able to exploit the Chargers' weakness against the run, while the Chargers should be able to exploit the Raiders' weakness against stopping anybody.

The Raiders are tied with Tennessee as the top Over team in the NFL at 9-3-1 due to a steady combination of poor defense and an offense with the ability to move the ball downfield fast. When they met the Chargers in November, it was a thrilling 31-26 finish (Over 52.5) that almost had seven points more added on Los Angeles' final drive. The Chargers have gone Under in their last three games, but this opponent should allow the offense to perform better, as most of Las Vegas' opponents do. Over is the top play here.

Yes the Chargers beat Atlanta but they're poorly coached and they've lost five straight road games. The Raiders are well-coached. They're home for the second week in a row, and this week they're not up against a superior team like the Colts. The Raiders have a good running game, Derek Carr is playing pretty well, and they need this win badly. Lay the points.