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High-ankle sprains are not simple injuries to recover from, and I think Jimmy Garoppolo will continue to be hampered tonight. This line has come down across the key number. Look for Jared Goff to exploit San Fran's thin secondary as the Rams cover.
The 49ers should bounce back from getting pounced out of their own stadium by the Dolphins last week, but even some level of improvement won't replace the pieces missing on San Francisco's defense. Going up against the creative Rams -- which have not won a game by less than a full field goal since Oct. 7, 2018 -- the 49ers will struggle to match the scoring even with their full complement of offensive playmakers back. I just don't see Los Angeles faltering to such a degree where it doesn't win by a field goal.
The 49ers' losses on defense have been too much to overcome: Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas, Julian Taylor, Kwon Alexander, Richard Sherman. This caused me trop their defensive rating by five points. The Miami Dolphins put up 43 last week against this Niners' defense. The Rams come in with revenge and in better form.
You probably think I'm insane for betting the 49ers after their awful performance last week, but this line number is discounting San Francisco a little too much as I make this a true pick'em. I'm excited to see this 49ers offense at full strength with Garoppolo, Mostert, Kittle, and Samuel all healthy and ready to play. Don't sleep on Brandon Aiyuk's ability to bust a big play anytime he touches the football. Take the points.
Will Jimmy Garoppolo last more than one half? The San Fran QB was yanked last Sunday and could get chased out again by a defense whose 20 sacks is tied for most in the league. The Niners have yielded 18. L.A. has endured three trips to the Eastern time zone, so this commute will feel like a walk down the block. The 49ers are winless at home, with straight-up Ws only against the New York twins. The spread belongs closer to a TD.
It's hard to back the 49ers after what we saw last week, but this line has moved so much off the lookahead number of 49ers -3 that I don't think we have a choice. Has the gap between these teams grown 6.5 points in one week? Or did the 49ers just have one of those games where everything goes wrong and isn't indicative of their true talent? While Jimmy Garoppolo struggled last week, it's important to note he still wasn't close to 100% and he didn't suffer any setbacks. I expect the 49ers defense to rebound and the offense to move the ball against a Rams defense that is far better defending the pass than the run. Love getting the hook with the 49ers here.
The 49ers don't have a quarterback at the moment. Jared Goff, on the other hand, isn't turning the ball over and the Rams are executing a great controlled passing game. They're among the best teams in all of football. This would have been a good game if San Fran had a healthy QB.
Los Angeles does a fantastic job of getting out of the gate early on offense. So much so that it puts a lot of strain on the opposing offense to match the pace. Judging by how ineffective San Francisco's offense has been the last couple of weeks, the 49ers may not be built to do that just yet. Expect Aaron Donald and that Rams defense to continue to keep the 49ers running in place.