The Cowboys defense is what concerns me most, largely because it puts the Dallas in difficult spots and keeps it off the field for extended periods of time, giving it fewer opportunities to work. But it's not like the Browns have been anything decent on that end this season. This sets up as a get-right game for the Cowboys and Dak Prescott, and though we're suffering the hook, it's still a point down from open. Dallas should find success against Cleveland, as so many others do, and cover the number by a couple points at least.

Dallas is 0-3 ATS while its defense has yielded 38 points or more in consecutive weeks. Although Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has shown strides at home, he has yet to do so on the road. In fact, the Browns have lost seven straight road games by an average of 18 points. Grab the Cowboys.

Dallas may have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but Cleveland is a run-first team, and I don't trust Baker Mayfield to make enough plays through the air to keep up with the Cowboys. My model says Dallas covers more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

I'm always inclined to take a look at the over when it comes to Cowboys home games. If we go back to AT&T Stadium opening for the 2009 season, the over has gone 52-40-1 overall for Cowboys home games. Since the start of the 2018 season, it's gone 12-6, including 1-0 this season. Through three weeks of the 2020 season, Cowboys games have featured an average of 61.7 points per game, and only the Vikings and Falcons (two teams that are both 0-3) have allowed more points than the 97 the Cowboys have given up this season. The Browns defense isn't much better. Cleveland might be 2-1, but it has a point differential of -13 after allowing 87 points in three games.

The Cowboys can score any number of points in this matchup, because the Browns defense hasn't been impressive (and throw out that performance against Dwayne Haskins, who was telegraphing his throws in a way Dak Prescott won't). The Browns were actually in a tight game last week until Washington imploded offensively; that won't happen to Dallas, who is expected to have Tyron Smith back. The Browns have to win with the run, but Kareem Hunt is banged up and the Cowboys are 10th in yards per rush allowed. The Cleveland defense can't get stops (25th in points per drive allowed), and I don't have confidence in Kevin Stefanski keeping up in a shootout against this talented Cowboys offense.

Dak Prescott has three great receivers, he's spreading the ball around, and I think the Cowboys will put enough pressure on Baker Mayfield. This is a shootout-type game that favors Dallas.