The Bills struggle mightily stopping the run, which is a problem against any team but particularly against ... checks notes ... Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. I do not think the Ravens dominate the Bills as they have prior opponents, but when push comes to shove, Baltimore covers the touchdown spread and potentially wins by double digits.

The one team that keeps passing tests on a weekly basis has been Buffalo. The Bills are an ATS juggernaut. Yet Baltimore is the team that has toppled the best teams all year along. Grab the high-octane Ravens even with the host Bills on extended rest.

Stylistically, you can say the Bills and Ravens play the same game. Where the difference lies is in the effectiveness, and efficiency of the QB play. Lamar Jackson is an MVP front runner, while Josh Allen is managing the game. To me, that's at least a 10-point difference on the scoreboard. I can trust Jackson to get the Ravens into scoring position more than I can Allen.

Buffalo's run defense has been a problem for the Bills all season long, and that doesn't bode well with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram coming to town. The Bills are better than most people realized before they beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but they aren't on the Ravens level yet.

This line says two things to me: The Bills still aren't getting enough respect, but I still have no appetite in fading the Ravens even when I see line value. The Buffalo weakness on defense comes against the run, where they rank 22nd in DVOA, and they haven't faced a rush offense like this yet. The Bills offense has been playing well, but this excellent Ravens defense has stifled better offenses like those in Houston and Seattle, so I'm not sure we'll see an offensive explosion from Josh Allen and Co. And while the Bills typically benefit from a big edge in the coaching matchup (check out the teams they beat), they won't have that here. Ravens get it done.

Buffalo won't be able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have too much speed, even for the Bills' solid defense. And Marcus Peters has made a huge difference in Baltimore's secondary. Lay the points.

Even though both teams love to run the ball, I think we're getting value below the key number of 44. Both teams have explosive playmakers, and the Ravens' dynamic attack will force Buffalo to keep pace. Go Over.