As I was taught a long time ago, picking NFL games is about not overreacting to week-to-week results. So I'm not going to do that here. The Saints looked downright dreadful getting boat raced by one of the worst teams in the league last week. Drew Brees looked like he should have retired years ago. More importantly, the defense looked like a sieve. The same defense that has held four opponents to 10 points or fewer this season and led New Orleans to a 31-24 win over Tampa Bay a month ago. That's the exact performance and score I expect today in a touchdown win for the Saints in a bounce-back effort.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host a Saints team that's coming off an embarrassing loss to the Atlanta Falcons. In early October, the Buccaneers had the offense clicking against the Saints but had too many costly turnovers. Playing four quarters of strong football will finally be accomplished by the Buccaneers on Sunday. Grab the points.

Tampa Bay has gone over in seven straight games. The Buccaneers offense is No. 3 in the NFL in scoring and their defense is No. 32. Jameis Winston has thrown 17 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. New Orleans is coming off a loss, so I'm expecting QB Drew Brees to take advantage of Tampa Bay's secondary. Three of the last four meetings between the two teams have gone over the total.

My model says New Orleans covers almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting solid value with the Saints laying these points. I expect New Orleans to bounce back in a big way after last week's shocking loss to the Falcons. The Buccaneers are allowing the most passing yards per game (298.9) this season. That bodes well for Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. Lay the points.

The Buccaneers have an average score of 28-31 which has seen seven of their nine games go over the total, but they’re only 2-7 ATS. They can score on any team but they can’t stop any team, either. It’s a good spot to see the Saints offense bounce back after the bad home loss to the Falcons. I look for Drew Brees to be more comfortable and go downfield more than we’ve seen since he came back. Over is the top play here.

I can't believe Drew Brees is as bad as he looked last week. Before last week, Tampa had lost four straight. The Saints' defense is very good and will create turnovers by Jameis Winston. This is a big game for New Orleans following San Francisco's loss. Lay the points.

The Bucs have seen each of their last seven games go Over, but this is the week that streak ends. Year after year, these Saints-Bucs totals are high but rarely go Over in Tampa, where the Under is 9-2 over the last 11 years. The Saints defense has been playing well this year, and I think they'll slow down the Tampa Bay offense enough to get us Under the total. While the Bucs probably don't have an answer for Michael Thomas, if they do have trouble scoring the Saints can shorten the game in the second half by running the ball, where the Tampa defense shines.