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Losing streaks by all other teams in the NFC East have allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to regain the division lead. They’ll venture on the road for the second straight week, this time against better competition in the Vikings. Minnesota’s ball control nature will not change, however, leaving the Eagles with plenty of chances to cover late. Take the points.
As a favorite against non-division teams, Mike Zimmer is 18-2-2 ATS. The Eagles, meanwhile, are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 starts at 1 p.m. ET. This is a statement game for Kirk Cousins, who must be tired of hearing he can't beat a good team. He's excelled in his career against Philly (102.1 rating) and should do so again Sunday given the Eagles' secondary.
Since the beginning of the 2015 season the Vikings are 25-10-1 ATS at home. They're also 20-8-1 ATS as a home favorite in that span. They'll cover this short spread against an Eagles team that might be good, but can be exploited in a tough spot.
Kirk Cousins never plays well against winning teams, but he has a strong history versus the Eagles. This Philly secondary isn't very good, and Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs can take advantage. Minnesota at home is very tough, especially with Dalvin Cook playing like he is. Lay the points.
This is the spot where you want to play the Vikings. Mike Zimmer is 29-12-1 against the spread at home as Vikings coach but 18-6 when an underdog or favored by 4 or fewer. That number turns into 11-3 when you throw out the 'dogs and just take the 1-to-4 point favorites. It makes sense; this Vikings defense is excellent and plays very well at home, and this year the unit ranks in the top five in DVOA, net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush. On Sunday the Minnesota defense controls the game, and the offense does enough to get the cover.
Philadelphia's offense has been a bit up-and-down so far this season. What has picked up is the Eagles' ability to run the football. That will get put to the test this week as they face one of the better, more athletic defensive fronts in the NFL in the Vikings. As long as QB Kirk Cousins can avoid the costly mistake, and play from ahead, the Vikings will be fine. I see that being the case here.