The absence of Antonio Brown is the big story for the Raiders, but I think the fact the Raiders will be without two starting offensive linemen will have a bigger impact on their offense tonight. The problem is I don't trust Joe Flacco and what I expect to be a conservative approach on offense by the Broncos to lay the points with Denver. This Under looks pretty appealing, however.

No team has had a whirlwind frenzy quite like the Oakland Raiders have the last 72 hours. Now they must figure out a way to play Week 1 in a similar spot they were in 365 days ago. Last season in Monday Night Football they showed their true colors as four-point home underdogs to the LA Rams. Expect the Raiders to put forth a gutty effort but for Denver to defeat and cover against their division rivals.

Defenses will be ahead of the offenses in Week 1, and that's good news for a Broncos team with a strong defensive identity led by Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and Chris Harris. Back Denver.

The Raiders opened as 2.5-point home favorites back in April and during the preseason, when Joe Flacco looked serviceable and second-year LB Bradley Chubb looked unblockable, Broncos money started coming in and dropped the number. The Raiders aren’t exactly coming into 2019 on a high note after going 6-10 ATS last season and the Antonio Brown situation could be a motivator mentally or it could be a letdown. My feeling before the game was that the Broncos' defense would rattle Derek Carr thanks to new head coach Vic Fangio maximizing his best players' ability on that side of the ball. The favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. I like Denver.

This line has seen a four-point swing since Oakland opened up as a 2-point favorite before turning into a 2-point underdog. Most books are now at Denver -1 but this will likely move again as the Broncos rate to be the public side. Most of the movement can be attributed to the drama involving Antonio Brown. But the bottom line is no receiver is worth at least three points to the line, nor is the distraction factor worth that much. The value position comes in fading this massive overreaction.

I don't think the Raiders are going to be very good this year, but this looks like a great spot for them. The Broncos seem to be a little overrated, and I don't feel much trepidation fading that offense on the road. I believe the defense could need a little time to adjust to Vic Fangio's style, as I'm not sure the current personnel is a great fit for his version of the 3-4 outside of their excellent pass-rushing tandem. You know Jon Gruden is going to show up for Monday Night Football, and I bet they get the win here before enduring a rough first half otherwise.