James Harden, who is coming off a monster 39-point showing in L.A.'s win over Golden State to seal the No. 5 seed, has gone over this number in 15 of his last 21 games and defense isn't exactly Denver's strong suit. Throw out the narrative that Harden doesn't perform in the playoffs. It's wildly exaggerated. He'll have some stinkers that stand out, but for the most part he's good for this kind of number.

Most people are picking the Clippers to win this series and I'm right there with the masses. They're just a better team than the Nuggets, particularly from a defense and depth standpoint. Kawhi Leonard is back at a level where he can reasonably match Nikola Jokic, and from that point down almost all the roster advantages lean L.A.'s way.

The Clippers may have been playing better than any team in the West at the end of the regular season, but the NBA's best player in maybe the best home-court advantage in the league at only -128 is something we feel obligated to play even if personally I'd love to see the Nuggets out. Their brand of basketball is practically epileptic (probably not a word but should be) with all the herky-jerky stuff. When you have Nikola Jokic at the center of it all, though, it sure seems to work. And this series feels a bit like a referendum on him because no way Coach Michael Malone is fired without NJ giving the OK.

Kawhi Leonard is available for the Clips...and that's news in the postseason. Kawhi hasn't been available for the full playoffs since the 2020 bubble in Orlando, either hurt during, or missing entirely, each of the four postseasons since. Now, however, he's in one piece and ready to go as the hot Clips (18-3 last 21) are for once full-strength in the playoffs. Kawhi also didn't face Denver during the season (Nuggets 2-1), and these teams haven't tangled since January. Much has happened since, including the dismissal of HC Michael Malone by the Nuggets just before the end of the regular season. As long as we think the Clips can win this series, let's ride them from the outset, especially as Denver looks vulnerable. Play Clippers

Norman Powell had a career year in 2024-25. The former UCLA standout was particularly effective against the Nuggets, averaging 27.8 points per game in four games.

The Clippers were a top 3 team in the NBA the final 6 weeks of the season, while the Nuggets' D collapsed and they fired the coach. LAC have two premier bigs to throw at Joker and at least contain him. James Harden will pick apart Russell Westbrook. I like the matchups for the Clippers, an elite D team. DEN dropped 3 of 4 at home in the playoffs last year and 3-13 ATS at home vs non-play-in playoff qualifiers. Nuggets are 2-12 ATS last 14 at home. LAC +14.2 over the final 15 games (2nd) and DEN+1.3 (17th). LAC are No 1 in offensive rating in that span and No 3 in D rating; Den 17th and 19th.

Kawhi Leonard played great basketball down the stretch and looked as good as ever over the final month of the season. Kawhi is healthy and in great form as he heads into a first round date with Nikola Jokic and Denver. I expect this series to be high scoring up tempo, and competitive. Leonard is likely to play 40+ minutes as well. Looks like the oddsmakers adjusted Leonard’s points, however his RA line I expect to be 11.5-12.5 as the series progresses.

FanDuel. Kawhi Leonard ended the regular season on a tear. He successfully shed his minutes limit and averaged 33.7 points plus rebounds over his last 15 games, clearing this line in 12 of those contests. He’ll face off against a Nuggets squad who not only ranked 8th in pace, but also was below average against the fast break and spot up shooters (17th and 29th, respectively). It’s a tougher spot for James Harden (Denver is fourth best at limiting pick and roll scoring), and Ivica Zubac will have to deal with Nikola Jokic. I’d bet this up to over 31.5.