We'll see about the status of Ja Morant (ankle), whose availability will be a game-time call. Despite a solid effort (albeit in a losing cause) vs. the Warriors in San Francisco on Tuesday, and Purdue's 7-4 Zach Edey making his presence felt, the Grizzlies have had too much tumult in recent weeks to trust them laying this sort of price to seemingly-revived Dallas. The Mavs were apparently laying low the last week of the regular season with all focus on the play-in, and that was the best Mavs effort in weeks on Wednesday at Sacto, with almost all of the bigs (including Anthony Davis with 27 points) healthy and contributing, and playoff vet Klay Thompson reminding he can still deliver with 23 points. Play Mavs.

The strength of the Mavericks’ defense is their ability to protect the paint. With Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford all healthy, they have three players who are very good rim protectors. Their weakness is on the perimeter, which is where Bane thrives. Bane shot 39.2% from behind the arc this season and has never shot worse than 38.1% from deep for his career. When these teams faced each other in March, Bane scored 27 points. After he scored 30 points and played 39 minutes against the Warriors on Tuesday, I like Bane to hit the over on this prop.

Here's a curious pattern involving Dallas, as even with various injuries, and Kyrie Irving being out since the start of March, Mavs games have become higher scoring, as the 14-5 over mark since March 5 (coinciding exactly with Kyrie's absence) suggests. The pattern continued on Wednesday at Sacto as one of the healthiest Mav lineups we've seen in a while (and post-injury Kyrie) looked sharp in a 120-106 win to eliminate the Kings. With Klay Thompson (23 points) bombing away, Dallas hit 50% of its triples, and a healthy Anthony Davis added 27 points. We'll see about the status of Ja Morant (ankle) for the Griz, but note 10 of the last 13 Memphis games have cleared 220.5. Play Mavs-Griz Over

The Mavs are very live to win this game for me. I was hoping this would hit 7 but the Ja Morant news probably kills that. The Mavs have way more playoff experience and are much healthier and Memphis has been a terrible defensive team at home. The Grizz covered just 6 of their final 20 games and just 2 of their last 15 at home. I was hoping to get +250 on ML and jump in there. Might settle for +225. The Mavs have the size and the shooting to exploit this defense. Memphis has allowed 109 or more in 17 of their last 20 home games. Firing their coach so late in the season was a desperate move unlikely to pay playoff dividends.

The Grizzlies have won and covered the last three meetings with the Mavericks, but the Mavericks won the first meeting on December 3rd, 121-116. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have stayed under the total. In a game on March 7th, the total was 237.5 compared to this one at 223 ½. Both teams have been strong over teams this season, with Memphis over 11 games over .500. I think this game could be a blowout by Memphis, which means they could score 120, but Dallas might only score 92, which stays under. In playoff basketball, they play defense. Just Memphis to cover.

We’ll sell high on Zach Edey's rebounds after it’s steamed up because of his crazy 16 reb avg his past 7 games (6-1 over 12.5). Edey was averaging a solid 0.37 rebounds per minute until April when over the last 7 games he is averaging 51.4% rebounds per minute. The combination of facing resting and bad teams and lucky bounces has resulted in a rebounding rate that is just too unsustainably high. I also think there is a chance for early foul trouble for Edey, which could keep him under 30 minutes and at a 0.4 reb/min rate the under will hit. Dallas was outrebounded by 8 vs Sacramento and the trio of Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford only combined for 15 rebounds.

Time to sell high on Zach Edey. I'm the first to take his overs, but the first to recognize a heat check. The combination of facing resting and bad teams and lucky bounces has resulted in a rebounding rate that is just too unsustainably high for the center. I also think there is a chance for early foul trouble for Edey which could keep him under 30 minutes. Dallas didn't need to show their full rebounding potential last game, as they shot so well from three they didn't have any offensive rebound opportunities. I think this is the game where we see the Big 3 have their moment, and Edey will struggle.

The Grizz firing their coach helped their offense a little, but the D still stinks. It's actually worse at home, where the young team tends to wilt. Memphis allowed 109+ in 17 of their final 20 home games! They allowed an average of 121.3/G in that span (which includes a fake game vs DAL on Sun with nothing at stake). Over the final 10 regular season game the Grizz were 24th in points allowed off turnovers, 19th in fastbreak points allowed, and 27th in opposing foul shots attempted. The return of all three Mavs bigs, including Anthony Davis, has charged and diversified its offense. Klay Thompson is a playoff assassin behind the arc and PJ Washington has proven to be a big-shot taker too.

PJ Washington is a key starter for the Mavericks and he certainly has the trust of HC Jason Kidd. Washington is a capable of defending multiple positions and his three point shooting creates spacing on the other end. He also plays huge minutes and I expect that number to approach 40 on Friday versus Memphis. Washington was able to eclipse this line, despite shooting 5-15 from the field. This combo line is way closer to his floor. I would play for a full unit at 24.5.