This line has adjusted too much to last month's low average. Dereck Lively missed seven games due to injury and originally came back with limited minutes. But with three normal production games he has hit this over. He got in foul trouble last game and sat early, which is playing to this low line. Look for this to be one last buy low spot on Lively.

Siakam should rebound very nicely (pun intended) against a Dallas team that simply doesn’t rebound or play D against the Siakam spot. Couple that with an assist number that I make 4.25 (v the line baking him in at 3.5) and I love the over.

We have a big number here for Nesmith who averages a combined 17.7 PRA on the season. Nesmith has been held under this line in six of his last seven appearances while averaging just 15.3 PRA over that sample. While this matchup against Dallas would certainly qualify as a plus one, Neshmith appears to be operating at less than 100% and is Questionable, although expected to play. The Pacers have a deep bench and rarely let their starters eclipse 30 minutes.

PJ Washington did almost nothing in a 133-111 loss at Indiana on Feb. 26, scoring two points on 1-of-6 shooting. That's given us some value on his scoring prop in this rematch. This game is in Dallas, and Luka Doncic is questionable with an ankle sprain. Even if Doncic plays, look for Washington to continue being aggressive, like he has been since that loss to the Pacers. Over the past four games, Washington has scored 54 points (13.5 per game). With a whopping total of 247, look for Washington to do his part and score at least 14.

The Mavs have dropped four of five -- including by 22 at Indiana on Feb. 25 -- to slide back into the play-in tournament realm in the West. With time running out to get a top-six seed, I highly doubt Luka Doncic, the reigning Western Conference Player of the Week, sits tonight with his questionable tag. Obviously only play this if he goes but once it's official, the moneyline might not be playable. Indiana is just 1-3 since that last Dallas victory and was routed on Sunday in San Antonio.

Pascal Siakam is averaging 6.9 rebounds over 21 games since joining the Pacers. Over their last five games, he has hauled in at least eight rebounds four times. That included a nine-rebound outing against the Mavericks. The Mavericks have given up the fourth-most rebounds per game in the league, so expect Siakam to have similar success in their rematch.