In game three Malcolm Brogdon was scoreless for the first time this season. Expect the NBA Sixth Man of the Year to bounce back. Nine times this year he has scored five points or less and responded each time. Take Brogdon’s over as he is averaging twenty points following the nine subpar outings.

Butler has his this number in all three games against the Celtics, as well as 5 of his last 6 games. I think he will continue to facilitate the ball tonight against Boston. I would shop around this line, but I think he will certainly have 6+ assists.

Took a bath with our Kyle Lowry props in Game 3 because Miami's blowout win messed up the rotation for everybody, but in spite of it all, the one prop that still cashed was the over on Lowry's assist total. While his scoring has fluctuated since moving to the bench, he's maintained a steady output of assists. Since the start of the Knicks series, Lowry has had at least four assists in eight of nine games. On the season he's finished with at least four assists in 26 of Miami's 33 home games.

Marcus Smart has seemed lost this entire series and unsure what to do. Of course, the entire Celtics roster looks like that. Either way, after having a great series against the Sixers, Smart hasn't scored more than 13 points in any of the first three games. That's basically how it's been for him against Miami all year. In six games, he's gone over this total twice, and is averaging 10.7 points per game.

The range of outcomes for Jayson Tatum’s points this playoffs has been incredible. He’s scored as few as 7 points and as many as 51. Our SportslineAI model is predicting 30.2 points for Tatum tonight. He only had 14 points in their blowout game three but 30 and 34 in games 1 and 2. Tatum will get the volume tonight its just a matter of if the shot goes down.

Martin is averaging 19.0 ppg in the series on 63.2% shooting compared to 10.5 ppg on 45.8% shooting in the last round vs. New York. We won on Martin's three-pointers in Game 3 vs. Boston but will simply do points this time as Austin Reaves showed last night for the Lakers that a player like this can still score even when making just one three-pointer.

The Heat are finally favored in this series. They have taken the heart out of the Celtics, who looked to completely quit after falling in an early hole in Game 3. Jimmy Butler is locked in, the Heat role players have stepped up and Erik Spoelstra gives them a huge advantage in terms of the coaching matchup. I don’t bet against Butler anymore in the playoffs, so give me the Heat to complete the sweep.

It's desperation time for the Celtics, who occasionally looked disinterested and lost during their Game 3 pantsing. Joe Mazzulla will be coaching for his job, and his team will be playing for pride -- to say nothing of keeping the season alive. And Jimmy Butler? Expect him to be focused on ripping Boston's soul out. The Over's hit in all three games of this series, and I expect it to happen again. It's hitting in 62% of my model's simulations.

The Miami Heat used the momentum from stealing game two and rode it to a cruising game three victory. Clearly the Celtics were not ready to match the Heat’s intensity from the onset of game three. Now the tide has shifted to the Celtics being the underdog for the first time in the series. Look for Boston to finally play with an edge as the Heat stumble with such a big series advantage. Grab the Celtics.

Bam Adebayo only played 26 minutes because of the lopsided score in Game 3. Still, he scored 13 points. Prior to that, he had scored at least 18 points in five straight games. He is Jimmy Butler’s top running mate, and I don’t think the Heat will win by 26 points again, so look for Adebayo to play enough to hit the over.

Caleb Martin might not be a big name, but he is a key reason why the Heat have the Celtics on the brink of elimination. He has scored at least 15 points in all three games, shooting 63.2 percent from the field. With Kevin Love struggling to defend, Martin has played at least 30 minutes in each game. Expect him to play a lot again, making the over the way to go.