Phoenix won the last two meetings while Denver has covered the spread in the last three. But this play is about the today Suns now facing a team that has trouble defending, lots of trouble. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant will be too much to start this series. It’s not that Denver is lazy, but they just don’t defend and it’s been going on for the last two months which has made them beatable by even the worst NBA teams. I root for Denver since the ABA days, I want them to win, they’re fun to watch, but the Suns got this. Suns to cover

We love playing this prop when the Nuggets are at home. Jamal Murray averaged 2.4 three-pointers and shot 38.5 percent from behind the arc on the road during the regular season. At home, he averaged 2.8 of them and shot 40.7 percent. Murray made at least four three-pointers in all three home games in the last round against the Timberwolves. Dating back to the regular season, he has made at least three three-pointers in eight straight home games. Lots of juice here, but I still like this to hit.

The Suns looked like they were in for a fight against the Clippers before Kawhi Leonard (knee) went down. Their starting five is stellar, but their bench leaves a lot to be desired. The Nuggets might not have big names coming off the bench, but Bruce Brown Jr., Christian Braun and Jeff Green have all been effective. The Nuggets were 34-7 at home this season, while the Suns were just 17-24 on the road. This game being in Denver should be the difference to help the Nuggets start off the series with a victory.

The Nuggets have extra motivation after getting swept by Phoenix in this round last season. The Suns play their starters heavy minutes and that doesn't bode well at high altitude. Kevin Durant did not play in Denver this season. I like this cohesive Nuggets' team that has been playing together all season. Take the hungry host!

Kevin Durant took a backseat to Devin Booker in the scoring department during the Suns opening round series against the Clippers. Despite a "quiet" series, KD still scored 28.4 PPG and pulled down 7.6 RPG, while eclipsing this combo line in three of five games. Durant's 17.0 FGA's were the fewest shots he's attempted in a series since the 16-17 season. I expect Durant to average closer to 20 shots per game vs DEN and I also think it's unlikely that Devin Booker will come close to the 23.6 FGAs he averaged vs LAC. Durant logged 43 minutes per game and is barely coming off the court. I like KD's points prop, but I slightly prefer his PR line. Reason being the Nuggets are a great rebounding team and Deandre Ayton who is the Suns top rebounder, might find himself in foul trouble quite a bit guarding Nikola Jokic.

If Phoenix is to knock off the #1 seed in the Western Conference, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker will likely have to combine for more than 60 points as they did in each of the Suns' four wins against the Clippers. Durant topped this prop total in the final three games of the series and overall, he's scored at least 28 points in 7 of his last 11 games, including twice against the Nuggets. Booker has struggled against Denver this season, so the emphasis will be on Durant's scoring prowess to lead Phoenix. Expect a high-scoring, close Game 1 including a 30+ point performance from the future Hall-of-Famer, Durant.

Pretty geeked (just dated myself a bit) to see this series as we really have no idea how they match up because the Suns didn't have Kevin Durant when the Nuggets won the first two regular-season meetings and Denver didn't have Nikola Jokic when Phoenix won the next two. I don't think the Suns looked all that great in the last round against a Clippers team that was missing Kawhi Leonard for 60% of the series and Paul George for all of it. Durant and Devin Booker are having to play monster minutes because the team is so thin. The Nuggets are deeper and own the best home-court advantage in the league.

Nikola Jokic averaged 26 PPG in Denver's series against the Timberwolves. Next up is Phoenix who are favored to beat the Nuggets. The Suns have no shortage of offensive fire power and Kevin Durant and especially Devin Booker were both locked in during the opening series. Joker has played well against Deandre Ayton historically and he has scored at least 27 points in five consecutive head to head meetings. I expect Jokic to be more aggressive looking for his shot in this series and I believe he is going to need to average around 30 PPG for the Nuggets to advance to the Western Conference Finals.