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Expert Picks
Dennis Schroder played a series-high 30 minutes in Game 4, up from 24 in Game 3 and 16 in Game 2. Even accounting for overtime, his minutes are increasing. The Lakers were plus-24 last game when Schroder was on the floor. Look for a faster pace in Memphis and for Schroder to make the most of his opportunities.
Davis may be dealing with a foot issue, but don’t expect that to hinder his play in a potential close-out game. He has not had to carry the load offensively thanks to the Lakers' immense depth. He’s still playing his game, though, and making an impact with blocks, rebounds and his overall presence on the floor. I expect a break-out performance offensively as he clears his points prop for just the second time in this series. Play his Over.
There are so many outcomes we could see from this game tonight. I don't feel comfortable with either spread or total...but I do with Austin Reaves looking to prove something, specifically from behind the arc. Memphis is going to run with pace and look to overload the Lakers with speed and points. Could work, could miss. That said I think we should see extended minutes from Reaves in that style of game script. Couple that with the possibility that the Grizzlies could see themselves up late and the Laker vets grabbing time on the bench to rest. We only need two to fall from downtown, let's get it.
The Lakers have won and covered five of the seven meetings this season, including taking Game 1 in Memphis due to some great performances from unlikely sources. Memphis is last in the playoffs with 41 percent shooting, but I like how active the Grizzlies' front line has been after getting pounded on the boards in Game 1. Memphis lost only seven games at home this season. The Grizzlies will have a strong home crowd and might get a few more calls as well.
Memphis shot poorly in Game 4 and still almost won the game. I think the Lakers are a tired team, and close-out games are tough to win on the road. The earlier start time favors the Grizzlies. Take the home team in this spot!
Ja Morant struggled in Game 4, shooting 8-for-24 from the field. Still, the Lakers needed overtime to win at home. The Grizzlies were excellent in Memphis during the regular season, posting a 35-6 record. They aren’t going to go down without a fight, and the home crowd will be raucous from the get go. While I think the Lakers win this series, look for the Grizzlies to at least force a Game 6.
Tillman has become vital to Memphis' chances of a series comeback as, along with Jaren Jackson, Jr., he's one of the only competent NBA big men that the Grizzlies have available. His minutes have increased each game of the series (22-32-39-42), and while it's hard to see him going above that tonight, I expect the production to be there once again. In 14 of his last 16 games that Tillman has played 28 or more minutes, he's been over this prop total. In 12 of those games, he's scored double-digits. Expect another 11-8-3 game at the minimum and another hit of this prop for the Grizzlies' forward.
LeBron James dominated the glass in Game 4, hauling in 20 rebounds. He has at least 10 rebounds in three of the four games in this series, and the one game that he didn’t, he just missed with nine of them. He is playing a ton of minutes and the Grizzlies are without their best rebounder in Steven Adams (knee), so look for James to record at least 10 rebounds again.
Only one day in between Games 4 and 5 instead of two should benefit the much younger Grizzlies as they look to extend their season. LeBron James played 45 minutes in Game 4 and Anthony Davis 42, so they might not have a ton left in the tank at their age/injury history. Human nature perhaps for the Lakers to be a bit half-hearted here knowing they can finish things off in Game 6 back at home Friday.