We are backing up or ML play on the Bulldogs by taking the points against an early key number. This line briefly reach 5.5 in some markets but still provides plenty of value.

Georgia is 5-1 this year, but it hasn't covered in its last five games since beating Clemson 34-3 in the opener. Texas has gone 6-0 this season and is 5-1 against the spread with its only blemish being a non-cover against Mississippi State laying -37. This is a true test for a team wanting to become a champion like Texas. Georgia is going to give Texas all it can handle. Their last meeting was in 2019 and Texas won 28-21. Texas has the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 229 yards per game. The Longhorns only allow 125 yards passing per game. The Texas home crowd is going to be an edge for the Longhorns. Texas wins by five or more.

Why am I taking Georgia straight up? It's pretty simple. How often do you get the chance to bet the Georgia Bulldogs at this price? Texas could very easily win this game, and it should be favored, but it's still Georgia, and the closer you look at Texas' resume, what's the best team it's played?

Not long ago you saw a game like this and took the under because the best teams in the country were all great defensively. That's no longer the case. Now in order to be elite, you need an elite offense, so these top five battles all become battles between great offenses. And even the teams with good defenses have been unable to stop them far more often than not. Just look at how Alabama/Georgia and Ohio State/Oregon played out. This should be no different.

We are taking an ML shot on the Bulldogs largely out of principle. That is, there is massive value on the most dominant program in college football over the past half decade, and the pre-season favorite for the national title, to win a single game against any other FBS opponent. The top-ranked Longhorns have looked amazing, but they are historically good for at least one inexplicable letdown per season. Rival Oklahoma is usually a prime candidate for the Texas flub, but the Longhorns are coming off a 34=3 beatdown of the offense-challenged Sooners. Georgia slipped up a few weeks ago against Alabama, but this is the last team that should be overlooked in a spot such as this.

What makes Texas the pick in this game is they are legit #1 in many defensive categories. But for me, it's also about their 3rd down efficiency on both sides of the ball. They convert 50% on offense and only give up 29% on defense. I really like those numbers in this matchup. Plus, Texas QB Quinn Ewers is more battle-tested in big games than Carson Beck is.

Taking UGA with the line reaching +4 at DK. I make Texas -1 and think this is going to be a real tight game. Horns have the No. 1 ranked defense but haven't faced a QB who can throw a forward pass over 10 yards yet. UGA is a dog for just the fifth time since 2019 and has won 50 straight games against teams other than Alabama. Doesn't happen often but there is a little value backing the Bulldogs.

In a battle of elite defenses, I just can't recommend the over. Texas leads the nation by allowing only 6.3 points per game, while Georgia is surrendering 17.2 PPG. The Bulldogs have won an amazing 50 straight games against teams not named Alabama and the Longhorns are 0-5 against top five teams since 2000. While I lean towards Georgia to pull the upset, I like the under quite a bit in this one. Georgia 24, Texas 21.