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Both teams carry reputations as offensive forces. Not to be overlooked are their impressive defenses. Ohio State is allowing the fewest yards per snap in FBS, and four of five opponents have scored seven points or fewer. (The other exploded for 14.) Oregon's D ranks 16th in ypp and has limited four of five foes to between 10 and 14 points. Dating to late in the 2022 season, their games are going Under about two-thirds of the time. One team's score might creep into the low 30s. Both seem unlikely.
It's the biggest game of the weekend, but not one I expect will be high-scoring. Ohio State's defense has been phenomenal, and should provide plenty of resistance against an Oregon offensive line that's had problems. On the flip side, Ohio State's line hasn't seen a front seven like this Oregon unit, either. There's too much talent on these offenses for there not to be big plays, but there won't be nearly as many as usual.
When the schedule was released, I always wanted to play Oregon. This game is significant as it will be Ohio State's first visit to Autzen Stadium since 1967 and only the fourth meeting between these two programs this century. The Ducks have recorded seven sacks in their first two Big Ten games, while Ohio State's offensive line has shown some vulnerabilities. The Ducks have the 19th-ranked passing offense in the country, featuring skilled receivers Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, presenting a formidable test for Ohio State's defensive backs. Will Howard is an experienced quarterback who has thrown one interception in three straight games against weaker pass defenses. Oregon is 34-1 straight up in their last 35 home games. Take the points!
Before I make my prediction, let me state that I believe Ohio State is the best team in the country and will win the National Championship. But they won't go undefeated because of this one game. OSU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as favorite vs AP Top-5 Teams. Oregon is 9-2 SU & ATS in their last 11 home games vs AP Top-10 opponents. The Ducks have also won 28 straight games when scoring first. I believe they'll do so again on Saturday and hand Ohio State the only loss they'll register until 2025. Oregon 27, Ohio State 24.
A battle of two 5-0 teams with the Buckeyes at Oregon but Oregon has a problem of covering this season. They're only 1-4 against the spread. I'm seeing Dillon Gabriel not look so hot the last couple of weeks, with two touchdowns and two interceptions against Michigan State. It's not a fluid offense yet. Oregon only ranks 27th with the 458-yard offense per game. Ohio State has the No. 2 defense allowing 202 yards per game. Something's going to come to a head in Oregon. Ohio State's offense is 10th in the nation averaging 510 yards per game led by QB Will Howard. The Buckeyes have 15 starters return from last year, Oregon returns 10, and one of them isn't Bo Nix. Buckeyes win.
This game will pose a real test for the Ducks' offensive line. Though Oregon's line has played better since it was tweaked after struggling against Idaho and Boise State, the Ducks haven't faced a defense near the caliber of the Buckeyes'. Ohio State leads the country in both scoring defense (6.8 points per game) and total defense (202.4 yards per game). On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes have better receivers and running backs than Washington did last year, and the Huskies beat Oregon twice. I'm on Ohio State.