Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
Notre Dame has been immensely impressive through its first four games, more so offensively despite only allowing 11.8 points per contest. Sam Hartman has completely changed the make up of the Fighting Irish, and it's fair to argue that the wrong team is favored in this game. (It really should be a pick 'em, and I will have a moneyline play on the Irish, too.) As such, getting not just the field goal but the hook is absolutely the main play. Ohio State could certainly win, but it must do so despite playing in a tough road environment with the less-talented QB in the game.
This was a four-point game last year deep into the fourth quarter before Ohio State tacked on a late touchdown. But that game was played in Columbus, and the Buckeyes had quarterback C.J. Stroud and a bunch of players who are now in the NFL. This year, Notre Dame has the home-field advantage and the edge at QB with Sam Hartman, who ranks third in the country in passing efficiency. Buckeyes QB Kyle McCord will face his first real road test (no disrespect intended, Hoosiers). Give me the Irish.
Models make this game a virtual coin clip, so there's value on the underdog. It's a good-on-good matchup in the trenches, so the difference will be under center. Notre Dame has the clear QB edge with Sam Hartman, who is 1 of 5 QBs nationally to have passed for 1,000+ yards through Week 3 and has a perfect 13-0 TD-INT ratio. This is Kyle McCord's first game against a ranked opponent. OSU's offense finally broke out vs. WKU, but McCord isn't as good as his raw numbers show. Per PFF, McCord has a 65.1 passing grade this season with as many turnover-worthy plays (4) as big-time throws. Sure, he has the best WRs in the country, but the Irish secondary is equally talented.
Last year's meeting was a boring defensive struggle. This year should look a lot different. Ohio State has explosive playmakers on the perimeter, while Notre Dame has a QB capable of throwing the football this season. Both defenses are off to great starts, but neither has been tested the way they'll be tested this week.
I think Notre Dame has a decent chance to win the game outright but I'll absolutely take the Fighting Irish at the best number possible. The key here is keeping the ball out of the hands of Ohio State's offense with Audric Estime and the ground game. Shorten the game, limit explosive plays and ride what should be a rowdy home atmosphere in South Bend.
ND QB Sam Hartman was the prized portal transfer and has paid off handsomely so far. Hartman is completing 71%, 11.8 ypp, 13 TD passes and zero int's against a below average SOS. Hartman is a 6th year senior and will not be intimidated by Ohio State. The Buckeyes 5-star QB Kyle McCord has dominated a below average schedule, completing 70%, over 10 yards a pass, six TD passes and 1 int. Sam Hartman will be the difference maker helping us get the total over. My model has this total 60.5.
This is going to be a phenomenal game. Alright thanks for coming and reading such excellent analysis enjoy it. Just kidding but yeah I can't wait to watch this one. My question though, is the right team favored here? This is no slight at the Buckeyes, big Ryan Day guy and Brian Hartline's resume speaks for itself across the NFL every Sunday from every team. Best in the business. That said though both defenses here could show out and we see each offense, at least early, look to avoid the big mistake. I'll ride with the home dog here.
Sure, Ohio State and Notre Dame have scored plenty this season and both offenses are excellent. But don't forget about the defenses, which are ranked 3rd and 4th nationally in yards allowed. Sure, neither team has faced an offensive powerhouse yet but I believe these units will keep the other team's offense in check somewhat. I could go either way on who wins this game, but a 24-21 Ohio State victory is the pick with a safe bet on the under.
Behind a sterling defense that is allowing fewer than 12 points per game and an efficient offense led by Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman, the Irish have rolled past their first four opponents. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have been working through some uncertainty but appear settled now with junior Kyle McCord entrenched at quarterback. Ohio State put up 35 second-quarter points against Western Kentucky in a stretch reminiscent of their dominant recent squads. Look for the Buckeyes to pull away Saturday with a win that will help their playoff resume.
I think this is a tough spot with the Buckeyes because it’s the first big game for junior QB Kyle McCord and it’s on the road. The QB play will be the key to this game. Notre Dame has sixth-year senior QB Sam Hartman transforming the Irish to new heights at the position. He’s started the season 4-0 with 13 TD passes and no interceptions. Last season Ohio State with a strong QB (CJ Stroud) won 21-10, down 10-7 at the half, in Columbus but Notre Dame covered +17. Hartman and McCord will be the difference here. I took the points with Notre Dame.