Guaranteed Rate Field will be a more pitching-friendly environment today with temperatures in the the mid-60s and humidity dropping to 52% at first pitch. Garrett Crochet has been the best pitcher in baseball in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xERA. Against lefties, the Rockies' wOBA drops from .346 (fifth in Majors) at home to .288 (24th) away from Coors Field. The White Sox hit .277 wOBA at home against lefties.

This is a buy-low spot on Luis Gil after a rough outing against Baltimore. His season-long .190 xBA and .315 xSLG are among the top 10% of the league, and he's racking up strikeouts at a 29.3% rate. Citi Park is a great pitching environment, plus the Yankees will need him to go deep after emptying the bullpen in a wild opening game of the Subway Series. Gil has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 starts.

This is a good hitting spot for both sides. The Royals' offense faces a positive park shift, moving from Oakland Coliseum to Globe Life Field. The good news for a struggling Texas offense is it gets a bad Royals bullpen and Brady Singer, whose wOBA is a full 100 points worse on the road (.279 vs .380).

I have Luis Gil projected for 6.03 strikeouts, going under this line 60% of the time (-150) and giving us a 10% edge at the even-money price. He's gone over this number in 4 of 10 starts, but three of those came against the Mariners, White Sox and Rays, who are all strikeout-prone or poor offenses. The Angels are better than those teams, ranking 14th in K rate and wOBA. Gil definitely has high strikeout upside and can make me look silly, but at this price point I can't resist the fade.

Kutter Crawford was lights-out when he faced Baltimore in early April, keeping them to just two hits in five innings of shutout ball. While the O's have been hot against lefties, they're holding a .288 wOBA and 87 wRC+ against righties in the past month, well below average. Corbin Burnes has lived up to expectations as Bmore's new ace, with a run value in the 96th percentile and a 2.92 xERA in the 84th percentile. The temperature should drop into the high 60s by first pitch, helping to keep fly balls inside the park.

I project James Paxton at 3.6 strikeouts. The Dodgers southpaw has been criminally lucky, with an xERA (5.55) and xFIP (5.43) almost three full points higher than his actual ERA (2.84). His 13% strikeout rate is the lowest it's been in his career. He hasn't thrown more than 4 strikeouts in a game since his season opener. The Reds offense isn't great against lefties, but they also don't strike out a lot, with a 20.4% K rate over the last month.

Baltimore is a Top 10 offense against lefties with a .339 wOBA and 124 wRC+. The market probably underrates the Orioles in this spot, and understandably so, because Albert Suarez is back in the Majors for the first time since 2017. In last week's start vs. Minnesota, he allowed three hits and no walks while striking out four in 5.2 scoreless innings.

Jonathan Cannon makes his second MLB start. In his debut last week, the 6-foot-6 23-year-old held a Top 10 Royals offense to one run on three hits. Chris Paddock has been beat up this season with a 8.98 xERA and .443 xwOBA. Granted, the damage has come against the Dodgers, Orioles and Brewers, who are all Top 4 teams against RHP, and this is... the White Sox. But we're going to keep these two basement-dwelling offenses out of it and target the starters in the F5.

Between two great offenses, ATL has the edge here with its pitching advantage. Reynaldo Lopez has started his Braves career with two quality starts in two appearances. He's improved his sequencing and is mixing in a curveball more often. The Stros' Hunter Brown made MLB history for the wrong reason in his last outing, giving up nine earned runs on 11 hits in less than 1 IP.

Ryan Weathers has limited the damage in his three starts, but his 6.91 xERA and 5.46 xFIP say more negative regression is coming. He's been barreled up at a 9.2% rate with a 93 mph exit velo. The problem is his FB is not good and he throws it more than 50% of the time. The Giants are a Top-10 offense against LHP with a low 17% K rate. Jordan Hicks rates among the top 10% of starters this season after dropping the velo but adding more horizontal movement to his sinker.

Joe Musgrove's exit velocity is up 2.5 mph from last year with a .350 xBA and .430 xwOBA that rank in the bottom 4% of the league. The Brewers are a bit underrated, as they entered the season projected to place fourth in the division, but their offense vs. RHP ranks second in the Majors with .381 wOBA and 135 wRC+.

Chris Bassitt's exit velo is up nearly 3 mph from last year. He's struggled with his control to start the season with a walk rate up to 12%. New York is still trying to figure out what it has with Luis Gil, who missed most of the last two seasons after TJ. But since 2022, he's reshaped his physique and quadrupled the usage on his changeup -- his best pitch. His .102 xSLG and .224 xwOBA in two starts rank among the top 9% of pitchers. With the Yankees offense, it's enough for me to back NYY in a coin flip game.

Kutter Crawford is in the top 8% of starters with a .135 xBA, .199 xSLG and .199 wOBA. His best pitch last year was the sweeper he debuted in June, and in 2024 he's upped its usage from 6.7% to 35%. It's an early start time at 11:10 am ET, but Boston gets to sleep at home tonight, while Cleveland has to travel after an extra-innings game.

Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite pitchers. He was one of my pre-season longshots to win Cy Young. He throws a splitter with a 68.4% whiff rate. While his expected metrics imply he's gotten a little bit lucky -- likely because he's new to the MLB -- they are still above-average numbers. His .103 wOBA after throwing 10 shutout innings is in the top 1% of the league.

Minny has the pitching advantage in both the starter and bullpen. The underlying metrics on Joe Ryan's FB worry me, but his splitter and sweeper look great and his 37.7% chase rate is excellent. He's allowed just one walk while striking out 12 in two starts. Kenta Maeda, on the other hand, is riding the struggle bus. Against the White Sox and Athletics, he's allowed a combined 9 runs and 5 walks, with only 5 strikeouts. His 8.07 xERA and .424 xwOBA are in the bottom 6% of the league.