I'm placing a 0.25u bet on the Moneyline (+240) and a 0.5u bet at +7.5 (-115). Texas excels in two key areas: defense and wide receiver strength. This is a significant moment for Jalen Milroe, as he faces a formidable defense for the first time in a game with massive playoff implications. I makeTexas +3.5 in this game, so I like it even more at +7.5, which goes through several key numbers.

I have Texas winning this game outright in 34 percent of simulations, which gives an implied moneyline of +194. I'm placing a 0.25u bet on the +240 at DraftKings.

It's tough to beat Alabama at all, let alone at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Which is why I have no designs that Texas will take down Bama on Saturday night. However, the Longhorns know from last year's meeting that they are capable of taking down the Crimson Tide, and the 'Horns actually bring back an experienced, talented team that has them -- legitimately for the first time in a while -- sitting as the Big 12 favorites. Look for a strong game from Quinn Ewers, who will keep Texas within the number, win or lose.

Traveling to play on the road at Alabama is always a tough task. For Texas though they come in with the mindset they should have pulled out the victory last season. Expect Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns to play another close competitive game. There may be a double digit lead for Alabama at one point, but look for Texas to stay within range of the number. Take the Longhorns plus the full touchdown.

Alabama QB Jalen Milroe answered a few questions in his first start as being the top QB with three TD passes thrown and rushing for two TDs while leading the team in rushing while walloping Middle Tennessee 56-7 and covering. Texas lost 20-19 to Alabama at Austin last season, but I think the 16 returning starters for Texas have a score to settle. My siding with Texas has to do with me having more questions about Milroe and his leadership. It’s a big game. I took the points with Texas who just might win outright.

Texas nearly pulled off the upset at home last season despite losing Quinn Ewers for over three quarters. He's back, healthy, and will be the best QB in this game. Is that enough to win the game outright? Possibly, but even if Alabama wins, I don't see the Tide pulling away.

I love the Under. Why? 1) The game is priced as if Alabama has the typical Alabama offense. I’m not so sure that’s true. 2) The Texas D is good and will keep the clock moving. 3) Alabama is beat up in the secondary, but that’s one place the Tide have no shortage of talent. That’s the unit Nick Saban coaches up. The rest of the defense is loaded with future NFL players. 4) Texas QB Quinn Ewers is very good and smart. I expect long Texas drives that eat up clock. 5) If either team kicks field goals, we will roll to the Under. 6) The new clock rules take out so many plays. I’m not sure the lines and public have adjusted.

This bet is essentially asking yourself will both Texas and Alabama each score 4 touchdowns in this game, and I think that they can. The Crimson Tide defense looked good in Week 1, albeit against MTSU, however the tackling was up and penalties down from 2022. That said there are a few injuries to deal with. Texas' offense can go and if the run game is there they can put up 4. The Bama offense has a QB that when running the ball starts in 5th gear, fastest dude on the team actually. It's a problem. This game will be legit, exciting and back and forth all night. I'll ride with the points.

Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe looked awesome against Middle Tennessee, which was a shock to a lot of people who heard rumblings about some issues at the position during fall camp. Is that a product of the opponents (Middle Tennessee), or is he truly a star-in-the-making? That answer is unknown. Because of that, coach Nick Saban will be conservative early. Texas will do the same because the last thing the Longhorns need is to dig themselves an early ditch in a raucous stadium.

I feel so good about this play that I put two units on it. The Texas defense features a formidable line and All-America linebacker Jaylan Ford, and I trust the Horns to hold their own against the Bama running game and force inexperienced quarterback Jalen Milroe to make plays with his arm and legs. I also expect the Alabama defense to pressure Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers, much like Rice did last week, and give up very little to the Texas offense. The new clock rules could make this a very quick game. Expect punts, not points. Under is the top play.