Georgia being a named power and TCU still being seen as the plucky underdog has created an advantageous line. Despite the Horned Frogs' seeming lack of pedigree, they are more than a team that surprises opponents and can put up points. They actually enter with the 19th most efficient defense in the nation and a special teams unit that ranks better than that of the Dawgs in efficiency (49-84). TCU is a live dog in this game, and getting nearly two touchdowns with a team that enters 9-3 ATS and (at least in my opinion) has a 25% chance to win outright is quite a value. At worst, a backdoor cover will be in play. Double-digit bowl game favorites are 2-5 ATS this season, and national title game favorites of 5+ points are 4-11 ATS since 1999. This is a half-unit wager to have action on the national championship as this will either be close (my expectation) or a complete blowout.

After contemplating this game for more than a week, I landed on TCU. The biggest reason? Georgia's pass defense has struggled in the last two games, giving up 425.0 passing yards a game and 9.88 yards per attempt and seven passing touchdowns. On Monday the Bulldogs face a receiving corps that is one of the best -- if not the best -- in the country. And if Georgia deploys more resources to stopping the pass, I expect quarterback Max Duggan to have a big game on the ground. Frogs punt returner Derius Davis could also have a game-changing play or two against a Bulldogs special teams unit that ranks second to last in the country in yards allowed per punt return (18.3). I'm taking TCU.

Glad I waited as this was 12.5 this morning but apparently it's not getting to 14. Georgia's supposedly vaunted defense has been totally shredded in back-to-back games, and I believe TCU has the better QB tonight in Max Duggan over Stetson Bennett, who seemingly has been at UGA so long he played alongside Garrison Hearst. The Frogs are tied for the national lead with six wins over ranked teams. Doubt they win tonight, but they certainly could and staying within about 10 points seems very, very doable.

The Bulldogs are overrated at 14-0 and the oddsmakers have put them on a pedestal. Georgia went 7-7 against the spread, the true measure of a team’s success. Meanwhile, the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted TCU's rating as rapidly as maybe they should have. The Horned Frogs have beaten the number at a 10-3-1 rate. The odds on them were wrong all season, and I think they're wrong now. TCU’s rating hardly changed after its win over Michigan, a game it controlled. Too many points. Take TCU to cover, maybe even win.

The initial look-ahead lines at most sportsbooks had Georgia about -16.5 or -17, but that number plummeted on the heels of upstart TCU's upset of Michigan in which the Horned Frogs looked like the better and more prepared team. Georgia trailed Ohio State by 14 entering the fourth quarter of its semifinal before staging a furious comeback to win, 42-41. From a personnel and talent perspective, Tennessee is the SEC club that most likely mirrors TCU in terms of style of play. The Bulldogs held the Volunteers to 13 points and, although the Frogs won't go down easily, expect Georgia to pull away late and cover the value-priced spread.

TCU has not trailed after regulation all season. It has the better quarterback. It leans on traditional methods for motivation and will surely do so with this nobody-respects-us substantial spread as it did against Michigan. The line opened at 13.5, attracting some early money on the Horned Frogs. That suggests it won't hit 14, so Frogs supporters should act early to avoid a further dip.