Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
This is an exceedingly difficult game to pick considering the talent on both teams, the quality of the coaching and the mutual feelings of disrespect for their seedings in the College Football Playoff. But it is coaching where I believe Clemson has an edge, particularly on defense where coordinator Brent Venables has plenty of experience slowing down Alabama and its myriad offensive weapons over the years. Ohio State is able to match it talent for talent, and while I think Justin FIelds is fantastic, I also give an edge to Trevor Lawrence, who similarly has experience on this stage that his OSU counterpart does not. The Buckeyes do have an edge in the secondary, but I'm not sure it will be enough.
FIESTA BOWL -- It's been well-established that neither of these teams have seen the level of competition they will see Saturday when they face each other in this CFP semifinal. Both have a wealth of explosive players on both sides of the ball, canceling each other out to a certain degree. Big-play offense should be responsible for a large portion of the scoring. But both defensive units should get enough stops to keep this Under the total.
Clemson has gone 9-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been in a zone in his last six games after a sub-par start -- throwing 20 TD passes and no picks. ACC opposition or not, Lawrence is making big plays. But the wrong team is favored here and Ohio State has revenge on their minds after a 31-0 loss in 2016 playoffs. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against winning teams. Buckeyes, and are the play here.
FIESTA BOWL -- Explosive offenses on both sides overshadow impressive defenses. Clemson ranks first in the land for fewest yards allowed, one spot ahead of Ohio State. With DE Chase Young opting to play rather than sit out for the NFL Draft, the Buckeyes’ peerless pass rush (with an FBS-leading 51 sacks) is at full force. Ohio State has recorded Unders in four of the last five bowls, while Clemson has done likewise in all four of its FBS semifinal outings with 54, 31, 30 and 33 points scored. Under is the play.
Fiesta Bowl -- These are two teams that are great at everything, but it's their defenses that have truly separated them from the pack. Because of that, I think the total for this game is a little too high. Clemson has been in four College Football Playoff semis already, and the Under has gone 4-0 in those games. The Under is also 4-1 in Ohio State's last five bowl games. This won't be a defensive slugfest, but I'm thinking it's more of a 31-30 game than a 41-38 contest.
FIESTA BOWL -- This game will be a defensive slugfest and played very tightly. Obviously, the passing game will have to thrive, and to me, that favors Ohio State because of its defensive backfield. The Buckeyes are much better there than Clemson, which means their passing attack should be able to give them enough for a victory.
FIESTA BOWL -- This game will be like a heavyweight fight, with both offenses feeling each other out for the better part of the first half. Why? The fear of making a game-changing mistake early will be a big factor. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields will have a hard time figuring out what defensive coordinator Brent Venables is throwing at him all game, and Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence will play smart and throw a few haymakers late. But this game won't get to 60.
FIESTA BOWL -- The Tigers have the No. 3 seed, but they're the best team in the nation right now. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables will dial up plenty of creative looks to confuse Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields, linebacker Isaiah Simmons will show the world how versatile he is by lining up on all three levels and Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence will play smart to lead his team to the title game.