Earlier results vs. UK have to unnerve the Vols a bit, because they couldn't win either game, UK winning 78-73 at Knoxville on January 28 and then a bit easier (75-64) at Lexington on February 11. Tennessee's recurring problems were on the stop end, as the Cats hit 50% from the floor on both occasions, and Vols weren't very accurate beyond the arc, making only 14 of a combined 63 attempts (a poor 22%). We have long wondered about this UT edition compared to a year ago with first-round pick Dalton Knecht. Chaz Lanier was a great portal add from North Florida, but doesn't bring the dimensions that Knecht added last year, when UT got to the Elite 8. Play Kentucky (NCAA at Indianapolis).

Kentucky performed very well without Lamont Butler in the lineup down the stretch and have looked even better with him back in it for the tournament. It’s very tough to beat a time three times in a season but the Wildcats match up very well, especially with Rick Barnes ATS record in the tournament, 6-18 since 2018. Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler have been performing well and while they have the edge on the defensive side, Tennessee doesn’t have as many scorers as the Wildcats.

Tennessee boasts the third most efficient defense in Division I, according to KenPom. Its games average the 47th fewest possessions. The Volunteers will ramp up the D and exercise patience on offense in an effort to knock off high-flying Kentucky for the first time this season in three meetings. The second encounter ended with 139 points on the board. The Wildcats recently have displayed some defense, which was largely absent for much of the year. Whoever wins is unlikely to reach the mid-70s.

Kentucky beat Tennessee twice during the regular season, but I expect a much different result this time around. The Wildcats shot a combined 50% from beyond the arc in those two previous meetings, and I simply can't see them replicating that performance on Friday. The Vols are a veteran-heavy team with several players back from last year's Elite 8 team. I expect Tennessee to win by close to 10 points here.

An important note here that unlike most Sweet 16 and Elite Eight sites, this Indianapolis-based regional will not be played in an arena but Lucas Oil Stadium. Kentucky shot a combined 24-for-48 on its three-pointers in the two wins against Tennessee in the regular season, so not only are we expecting some regression in any gym but potentially a major one given the change of venue. Tennessee wants to disrupt Kentucky’s flow offensively and limit the Wildcats’ transition opportunities, so I’m expecting patient possessions and plenty of offensive rebounding efforts on the Vols’ part. Less Kentucky touches means less scoring in the game, which I see going under.

This matchup will be the Volunteers' sixth game in 14 days, while Kentucky has played two fewer games during the same period. The Wildcats have already defeated the Volunteers twice this season. They excelled in their shooting, primarily because Kentucky can shoot effectively over Tennessee with longer bodies. The Volunteers are at a disadvantage in size, ranking 189th in average height compared to Kentucky's 22nd ranking. Expect a close, high-scoring game, with Kentucky's experience in tight situations giving them a slight edge to win or at least cover the spread. The Wildcats have played the tougher non-con (No. 79 vs. 204) and overall schedules (No. 3 vs. No. 12). Kentucky is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that allow <67 points. Super strong systems on the underdog.

Mark Pope led Kentucky to the Sweet 16 in his first year as head coach when he retooled his entire roster two weeks after John Calipari departed for Arkansas. Kentucky has beaten Tennessee the last three times, including twice this year, and five of the last six. Tennessee comes in with the number one rated perimeter defense allowing 28.3% 3-point shooting and the third-ranked defensive field goal percentage at 38.2% allowed. Since last losing to Kentucky they have won nine and lost two with the losses coming at Mississippi and against Florida. I like Tennessee here mainly because of their play at the end of the season and SEC tournament. Rocky Top. Tennessee covers.

If I were a Vols fan, and I most assuredly am not, I'd be thrilled that they lost both regular-season meetings to Kentucky in regards to winning this Sweet 16 matchup. UK was 12-for-24 on 3-pointers in both, and I think that was a fluke (x2) as no other team shot better than 45% from three against UT and only three hit more than 40%. This is from Indianapolis, a city that has caused Kentucky a lot of NCAA Tournament pain over the years. UT and UK have played three times in a season three times in Coach Rick Barnes' decade at UT. Neither team has won all three in any of those.