The Crimson Tide have been shaky all season and barely got past the Robert Morris in the first round. They can put up points with anyone in the country but it’s their defense that’s the issue. The Cougars are 11-1 SU in their last 12 and have one of the best offenses in the country. Alabama defends the perimeter very well, 22nd in the country, but the Cougars take good shots all around, inside and outside, and are the better rebounding team to allow second chance opportunities and possibly pull off the upset.

This game should feature plenty of offense, but there is no denying that Alabama is the better team here. The Cougars shot lights out in the first two rounds, and anything less here will result in a double-digit win for the Tide. I have Bama projected to win by 7+ here.

Alabama’s defense has been optional all year, and BYU has legit pros who can score the ball. This game is going to be played in the 80s and maybe even the 90s. I expect a high-scoring, close game. Give me the dog.

BYU has been ahead of the number consistently coming down the stretch of the season. We know the Cougars are 11-1 since Feb. 10 with the only loss coming to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, but the performances have been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations as the team is 10-2 against the spread in that same span. The X-factor here, not just on a BYU cover but a straight-up win, is the performance of 6-9 freshman Egor Demin. When Demin is playing at a high level he makes BYU a matchup nightmare, and given his performance in the opening rounds I think he can carry it to Newark.

We’re taking the points in a dead-even matchup with both programs in their current form. Alabama is led by Final Four veterans Mark Sears and Grant Nelson. The Crimson Tide had a bit of an uneven regular season, going 4-5 in their last nine games before the NCAA Tournament. They took care of business in the first two rounds but still had some trouble putting away Robert Morris and St. Mary’s. BYU has seen an ultra-efficient offense result in 50% field-goal shooting through the first two games, and the Cougars also showed resilience in beating Wisconsin after squandering a double-digit lead. They also have been sneakily under the oddsmakers’ radars all season, and we think there is value with them again Thursday.

BYU has been my adopted team this year and now that the line has moved from +3.5 to +5.5, it's time to jump right back in. BYU continues to be disrespected in the market in spite of losing just once over their last 12 games. In that time they've taken out Kansas, Iowa State, Arizona, VCU and Wisconsin. Many of their big wins have also been away from home. Both offenses should flourish and while Alabama may be the better team, this is too many points for a team that has a chance to win this game outright.

I've played the under 85.5 (-108) and will be playing the under 86.5 on exchanges. Only one book available in this tool. My simulations have BYU at 81.3 in this matchup against Bama.

Making a calculated gamble by the time I wake up tomorrow this has moved, as it was -185 offshore quickly after the match-up was set. Probably a bonkers scoring game, which no one does better than Alabama (okay Florida might do it better since they can defend) and BYU will be hard pressed to keep from getting in foul trouble and having its depth tested around the rim. ALA over 60% on 2-point shots. ALA is 21-6 since Dec 1 and all but one loss came to a team still in the tourney (Missouri). A defense-optional game is precisely their kind of jam and last time Cougars faced a team like this they got blown out by Houston. Opponent suits 'Bama's strengths just fine.