Alabama wants a fast-paced game. However, the Huskies have one of the best, most consistent defenses in the country. Connecticut shut down the number one offense in terms of efficiency, the Fighting Illini, holding them to 52 points. Connecticut has held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points, or less. The Crimson Tide’s defense has improved, but Connecticut is simply a different animal on both sides of the court. The Huskies are 4-0 to the under this tournament.

My simulations make UConn -8 which is still a very healthy number for a Final 4 game. Alabama is one of the best Rim & 3 Rate teams in the country, and they achieve this with a unique blend of pace and size. I believe Donovan Glingan will struggle to play more than 25 minutes due to fouls and pace. With the game never really in doubt, a backdoor cover at 11.5 is well within the range of outcomes here. Take the points.

Models project this spread closer to 9. Alabama thrives on tempo, ranking 13th in country with 72.6 possessions per 40 min. UConn ranks 316th with 65 possessions per. Alabama's scoring from distance has only gotten better during the tournament -- the Tide are shooting 41.4% from 3 in their last four games. Between the pace and the elite scoring ability, the points are hard to pass up.

The Crimson Tide clearly have the ability to score enough to beat most teams, the question here is whether Nate Oats’ group can be patient and locked in defensively at the right times. Alabama will not be in the business of stopping UConn on every possession, but what we saw at points in the wins against both North Carolina and Clemson was enough defense to get the job done. When you factor in the way both Grant Nelson and Jarin Stevenson performed in the regional wins I think Alabama has bigs that will not be intimidated by Donvan Clingan’s presence at the rim. I like Alabama to be the first team to keep within single digits for the reigning champs.

Is there a case for Bama? The Crimson Tide are built a bit differently than the teams UConn has mashed thus far in the Dance. Adhering to modern analytic dictates, Bama either shoots threes or right at the rim with layups and/or dunks, as designed by Nate Oats; there is almost no intermediate shooting. This might be the only strategy that has a chance vs, UConn, as Donovan Clingan's defense around the bucket could thus by a bit mitigated, especially if he has to chase 6-11 Grant Nelson out to near the arc. If UConn can get spread defensively, Bama has a chance. Play Bama (NCAA at Glendale, Az)

It's amazing what U-Conn has done since their last loss against Creighton winning 11 straight and covering 10 of those games. It's like they're better than last year and they won the championship last year. The last five games have stayed under because the defense is playing shutdown basketball, whoever they're playing. This is a team that has covered 26 of 38 games this season and they get stronger and stronger each game. U-Conn shoots 49.8% and they allow 39% shooting. They are the best team in the nation. U-Conn to cover.

The best team in the country excels at covering gets extreme rest to prepare. Grab this now. UCONN has proved that covering spreads in this range is baked into their cake and ALA's defensive deficiencies will show up here. UCONN can dictate pace and their big man looks unstoppable and they are used to the final four atmosphere. Admit I've been a Bama skeptic but this is more just a full-throated endorsement of UCONN's desire to kick everyone's ass by 15+ points. I grabbed it at 11 over the weekend. I wouldn't wait too long to get in. Too balanced and too heady and too deep. ALA is not a diverse offense - everything is a 3 or at the rim. UCONN has answers.

UConn has won 10 straight NCAA Tournament games by at least 13 points, most recently demolishing Illinois with a 30-0 midgame run. The Huskies won by 25 despite shooting 3 of 17 from deep. Alabama's stirring run to the Final Four was boosted by a 16-of-36 performance from deep against Clemson. The Tide also grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. I'm confident the Tide won't duplicate those successes versus UConn. Alabama sports the nation's third-most efficient offense -- right around where Illinois stood until it faced the Huskies. Look for Alabama to give UConn its toughest test yet. Ultimately, though, the Tide won't be able to withstand the Huskies' relentless excellence at both ends of the floor.