If there's one club that can slow down Duke, it's a Houston club with the nation's top defense and default home-court advantage. Even so, we've seen the Cougars' occasional offensive lapses nearly cost them their tournament lives against Gonzaga and Purdue. No doubt the Cougars will fight until the final horn, but look for Duke to clip the number on its way to the title game.

These have been two of the best defenses in the country throughout the season. Duke has the height advantage, and the Cougars want a slower paced style of game. It will be difficult to slow down this Duke offense, who has more offensive weapons and the number one offense in the country in terms of efficiency. The Cougars want to control the offensive glass, but they may struggle with Duke’s size and if they aren’t controlling that, they’ll rely more on the three. The Blue Devils are the more complete team on both sides of the ball.

Remove the team names from the jerseys, and this line would be smaller. Duke, drawing much wagering attention because of its blue blood legacy, might be better but not this much. Houston yields the fewest points per possession in Division I and operates slowly enough that their games average the seventh fewest possessions for both teams, which magnifies the spread. This is not your grandfather's Cougars; three players shoot 40-percent plus on threes. They are active and physical enough to keep Cooper Flagg in check. Goodness, their lone loss since Dec. 7 was a one-pointer in OT to a three seed in the NCAAs.

Watch for the Blue Devils to do what Tennessee couldn't and play over the top of the Houston defense, with savvy vet components like Tyrese Proctor and ex-Tulane Sion James strong enough to handle the UH pressure. As the romp past the Tide reminded, there is also much more to Duke than Cooper Flagg, with fellow frosh Kon Knueppel (21 points) and the unflappable Proctor (17 points) leading the scoring assault vs. Bama. Scoring better than 92 ppg in the Dance thus far, Duke's offense is humming. No Blue Devils scoreline with a healthy Cooper Flagg in the lineup has fallen beneath 140 since a midseason 78-57 win over the Cal Bears. Play Duke-Houston Over (NCAA at San Antonio).

For all the deserved attention that goes to Houston's defense there is the somewhat less discussed aspect of Duke's defense, which ranks fifth nationally overall in defensive efficiency and second only to Houston among Final Four participants. This is a group that just held Alabama 25 points below their season scoring average in an 85-65 win and have allowed more than 70 points just twice in their last 15 games (since Feb. 12). Now, there are outcomes where Houston can win the game and still end up going under this team total but even those scenarios speak to a game that is played at a slower pace with a grinding style.

The eyeball test so far in this tournament says that Duke is the best team in college basketball. Not only do the Blue Devils have a generational talent like Cooper Flagg, they have 22 wins by 20-plus points, a 2.60 assist-to-turnover ratio in the tournament (the best by any team in the past 15 years) and have trailed for just 5:41 in the last four games. That's too much offensive talent for Houston.

Figure out how Duke is favored by 5.5 points over Houston in the National Semifinal game. The two teams met last year in the Sweet 16 with Duke winning 54-51 and Houston being a four-point favorite. Houston has four of their five starters back this season and compiled a 34-4 record and again were very stingy on defense. Duke finished 35-3 and has all-everything freshman Cooper Flagg. What is it worth, a 9.5-point swing? I don't think so. I think Houston has played the better schedule in conference, and they went 10-0 on the road. Houston held opponents to 38.2% shooting and offensively, they were the second best three-point shooting team at 39.7%, making 8.2 a game. Houston to cover.

Have Houston in the final and absolutely believe it can win Saturday a short jaunt from campus. Reminds me so much of those two epic UNLV-Duke matchups in back-to-back Dances in the early 1990s. Houston is the rugged big-city team led by a controversial coach with a checkered past (Kelvin Sampson/Jerry Tarkanian), and Cooper Flagg is of course Christian Laettner on the "elitist" Blue Devils. I simply think the Cougars are grown men -- upperclassmen everywhere -- and Duke relies so much on the 18-year-old Flagg and other freshman teenagers in Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maulauch. It might be worth waiting as the public always loves Duke and maybe we see +6, but I'm totally fine with 5.5 as I don't think it will matter.

Few teams can handle the kind of defensive intensity the Cougars throw at you. Duke can. Their backcourt won't crack. They are elite rebounders and have the best player in the country in Cooper Flagg. Duke knows how to get to the line and when they do they put teams away. The Blue Devils are top 10 in converting their foul shots, while Houston is just 115th. If this gets to 3, I'll probably wade back in, and will buy it down as well as part of some small parlays. Duke is a little more balanced to me, and can win playing breakneck ball or at a slower pace. Duke also a little better defending the three ball though both clubs excel there as well.