It's telling that Auburn earned the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament despite dropping three of its previous four leading into the Bog Dance. The Tigers have proven their mettle by passing tests in each of the past three rounds against dangerous opponents. Their star player, Johni Brrome, says he 100% after getting banged up against Michigan State. Look for Auburn to outlast SEC foe Florida and head to the title game.

Johni Broome’s health for this game is the cause for the Tigers to be underdogs. This game would most likely be closer to a pick ‘em if he was 100%. However, the public seems to forget how dominant Auburn was throughout the season. They matchup very well with the Gators and have the guard play to defend the perimeter, as Florida relies heavily on the three. The Tigers perimeter defense has been excellent, holding opponents to less than 33% in the tournament. Florida was down most of the game against the Red Raiders and Auburn won’t forget this team putting up 90 on them in the last meeting.

When Florida beat Auburn 90-81 at Auburn, the Tigers were an 11-point favorite with a total of 156.5, and that game went Florida and over. Both teams went over 21 times this season, but each team is doing things a little differently in the tournament, with Florida continuing to go fast, getting over the total 11 games in a row, and Auburn staying under five of their last six games. But if Florida plays their game, then Auburn has to try and keep up. I see a score similar to the meeting from February as Florida has done 11 straight games. Over is the play.

Ever since the February 8th Florida 90-81 win at Auburn, Florida's had the slight edge as the best team in the SEC with sights set on the National Championship. Now they're two games away from claiming it all. Florida has won its last 10 games, and Florida has also gone over the total in their last 11 games. That's what they do: they go faster than the other team and score more points than the other team. It's a Florida way of doing things. Auburn's a short underdog in this game because they lost three times in their last eight games. Florida gets the win.

Florida’s games have gone over the total in 11 straight games. Both teams are in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and while they’re also the number two and three offenses in the country, it may take a little to get used to playing in the Alamodome. The Tigers defense have been the best part of their game in postseason, going under the total in five of their last six games. The total has also gone under in five of the last six meetings between these two.

The teams sport similar straight-up records. Against the spread? Not so much. Florida stands 27-10, Auburn 21-16. The public has caught on to the Gators, properly establishing them as a narrow fave. They are on a scoring binge, able to score from afar and at the rim with their wave of effective bigs. Florida's size could limit Johni Broome's scoring, as might a sore elbow. Auburn is less inclined to score inside, and the cavernous dome could unduly impact outside shooting. The Tigers ruled the college nation for much of the season, but Florida is peaking at the proper time.

Remember that even a healthy Johni Broome wasn't enough for Auburn to beat Florida on Feb. 8, at home, no less, when the Tigers were running at their absolute peak this season and on a 14-game win streak. Many insiders also thought Auburn was there for the taking in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 if Michigan retained composure and MSU had converted several of the shots it normally hits. Still, like the first meeting, the Gators have the depth and especially the length to match up with Auburn as the case in that earlier 90-81 win, with their own big-play star in G Walter Clayton, Jr, whose 30 points helped save Florida in the Elite 8. Play Florida (NCAA at San Antonio).

Auburn has had a run of slow starts recently, except when they faced another slow-starting team in Michigan State. The Tigers are 1-7 against the first half spread in the last eight games and 4-11 in their last 15, a span that stretches back to the loss to Florida on Feb. 8. The Gators, meanwhile, have tied or led at halftime in each of their last 10 games and can get their bench involved early to test Auburn's depth.

Full disclosure: Florida was my pre-tournament pick to win it all. But the Gators have trailed for 44:15 in this tournament and were lucky to beat Texas Tech in dramatic fashion. They won the previous matchup between these schools, but they will not have an answer for Johni Broome in this one. Auburn was a double-digit favorite in the first matchup for a reason. This is a revenge spot for the Tigers.

I can't get over the fact that the Gators dropped a 90-burger on Auburn. Maybe I'm putting too much weight on it. They are more balanced to me than the Tigers and a shade better defensively. They are probably a wee bit better at making ridiculous shots even amid duress. The Gators a little more adept to win a total shootout or a lower-paced game than the Tigers. Florida is 8th in the country in rebounding margin and if they get a bounty of the second-chance opportunities that's going to bode very well for them. Both teams have elite three-point defenses (top 12 in the country) but Florida is slightly better. Auburn can be inconsistent. Might be a final shot game.

As I largely expected, Auburn star Johni Broome dominated smallish Michigan State, but the Gators have the size to deal with Broome. And won at Auburn, 90-81, the day before the Super Bowl when the Tigers were No. 1 in the country (No. 1 overall seed in the Dance) and on a 14-game home winning streak. Broome was very good with 18 points and 11 rebounds but also only 8-for-19 from the field. And back then, the Gators didn't have 7-footer Micah Handlogten but they do now even if it's for only 15 foul-filled minutes. Don't generally like betting against a team with the best player on the court and Auburn will have that, but UF may own the next best four.