7 Expert Picks
Can the Nationals win back-to-back games? ...
Will the Orioles post a fifth straight win? ...
Kyle Hendricks is having a tough season. ...
Sunday Night Baseball with a team on a six game losing streak. ...
Ranger Suarez starts for the Phillies in the rubber match. ...
Seth Lugo is having a career best season. ...
Here are the early bets I made after the NFL schedule release ...
Past Picks
Have to play this simply as I believe the wrong team is favored with Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez holding a 5.09 road ERA. The M's have been dominant at home, and Bryce Miller has a 1.82 ERA at T-Mobile Park.
The Cleveland Guardians have won seven of the last nine games that Tanner Bibee has started. One of the two losses was against the Kansas City Royals earlier this month on June 6. Bibee gave up six hits and three runs. Look for the Royals to have some success against Bibee, as they extend their winning streak to four games.
Gunnar Henderson has been averaging an extra-base hit every 6.9 at-bats this season. Last night, he managed to get a single in three at-bats during the team's win. This wager will still result in a payout if Henderson records two singles. The All-Star shortstop has surpassed 1.5 total bases in 13 of his last 20 games, including seven of his previous 10. Michael Lorenzen has only recorded 55 strikeouts in 77 innings, and his two primary pitches will not be effective against Henderson, who has a 61.1% hard-hit rate against four-seamers and sinkers.
The Cards' Sonny Gray is 6-2 with a 1.51 ERA at home. Gray, a former Red, has pitched 7.0 or more innings in three straight starts for the first time since 2015 with Oakland. Over 17.5 outs here is too pricy for my taste at -210. Shortstop and NL Rookie of the Year candidate Masyn Winn is back in there after getting Friday off. Reds rookie Carson Spiers has given up seven runs in 12 innings during his two starts this season, both of which came against Pittsburgh. The Cards got a couple looks at Spiers last year (still retained rookie status) as he allowed four runs in six innings against them. Cincy's Jeimer Candelario (14 HR, 39 RBI, 30 R) is out again.
We admit we are inclined to back the Phillies, in general, against lesser teams. It may be a bit of a bias, although their 35-17 record vs losing teams is hard to ignore. And, yes, they are without two top bats right now due to injury. And Aaron Nola, while still very solid, is not having his best season ... although PHI is still 13-3 when he starts with nine wins by 2+ runs. However, the Marlins seem intent on sending Roddery Munoz back out to make another start with their rotation in tatters, and we see dollar signs. Fish have lost all five road games he has started, including four by multiple runs.
This KC lineup has issues and, although they play better at home, they are facing a very tough righty today. I am surprised the Royals took the first two games in this series and I'd be even more stunned if they kept it going today against Tanner Bibee. Cole Ragans is a strong starter for KC, but the Guardians tend to do damage to left-handed pitching and Cleveland is 17-5 vs southpaws this season. The Guardians are clearly the better team, with a massive bullpen advantage if they can manage to get to the sixth with a lead. The Guardians are also a very impressive 20-9 in day games. I expect their lineup to get cranking today.
The Mets are 16-4 in their last 20 games and their offense has been on fire, posting a 144 OPS+ in the last 28 days with an 18.8 K% in that stretch. Framber Valdez has had three starts with at least five earned runs allowed this season, but even if he can avoid a meltdown, he only has six Ks in four of his 14 starts this year. Furthermore, only six of 22 lefties have delivered six Ks against the Mets all year. The odds for this prop should be at least -150 in my opinion.
Looking for a barometer on the Mariners? There might be nothing better than Saturday's starting pitcher Bryce Miller, whose personal numbers reflect their pattern this season. Away from home, not so good...Seattle is 19-25 on the road, and Miller with a 6.28 ERA away. But when the Mariners fly back to Sea-Tac, they transform into monsters at T-Mobile Park, where they've now won 14 of 15 after last night's 3-2 win in 10 innings, and where Miller has posted a 1.82 ERA this term. This price thus greatly intrigues, as Pablo Lopez had been struggling badly on the Minnesota side (and how...9.69 ERA in first three starts this month) before Sunday's win at Oakland.