4 Expert Picks
The Rangers visit the Orioles on Sunday night. ...
Will the Orioles post a fifth straight win? ...
Sunday Night Baseball with a team on a six game losing streak. ...
Here are the early bets I made after the NFL schedule release ...
Past Picks
I generally try to play Under Tigers games where I can but only like this at 9 (Bet365) rather than 8.5 as most books have. Detroit righty and former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize seems to be settling in with six straight starts allowing three earned or fewer. One of the Tigers' better hitters, Matt Vierling, is out of the lineup. LA's Tyler Anderson leads MLB pitchers with 4.0 bWAR, ranks ranks sixth in the AL with a 2.63 ERA and is seventh with a .209 opponents batting average. Over his last eight starts, Anderson has pitched to a 2.34 ERA and has allowed exactly one run in six of the eight.
Simply a game the Snakes have to have to win this series -- need to take baby steps like that to turn the season around. After six strong from Zac Gallen on Saturday, the bullpen is in good shape behind today's starter Brandon Pfaadt if need be. The A's have never seen him. Pfaadt has been much better at home. Oakland's Luis Medina has a 5.63 ERA on the season.
The Over had been undefeated in the series until Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber’s injuries. We now have seen consecutive games go well Under the total. But look for the Phillies' lineup to perform better after having a couple of games to adjust without their top performers. Additionally, the Marlins have been great at scoring runs from the seventh inning on in this series. Take the Over.
The Marlins have surprisingly won two of the first three games in this series, but they're especially bad against left-handed pitching and now have to deal with Ranger Suarez (10-2, 1.83 ERA). Even with the Phillies missing several big bats, I like them to improve to 19-10 on the run line following a loss.
The Dodgers have now won 15 of their last 19 games in San Francisco. Fourteen of those 15 wins have come by two or more runs. The Dodgers are 11-3 when James Paxton starts, with every win by at least two runs. In his last three starts, the Dodgers have outscored their opponents 27-7. The Giants are short on arms, so I like LA to keep pouring it on its rival.
Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees but he hasn't quite looked in form yet, and Juan Soto is out of the lineup again for New York. Have to hope the good Kevin Gausman shows for the Jays. He has been wildly inconsistent but has good career numbers vs. the Yankees. Soto hits him well. So does Aaron Judge, but now he can be pitched around a bit easier.
Apologies -- accidentally had Over 3.5 earned runs originally on this play. I'll never play that most likely. The winds are blowing out some at CBP in Philadelphia but that Phillies lineup just isn't the same against a righty pitcher like Miami's Yonny Chirinos without Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Chrinos has been solid in two starts thus far and is basically only a five-inning pitcher so that should help our cause here. The SL Model has Chirinos allowing 2.8 ER.
Guaranteed Rate Field will be a more pitching-friendly environment today with temperatures in the the mid-60s and humidity dropping to 52% at first pitch. Garrett Crochet has been the best pitcher in baseball in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xERA. Against lefties, the Rockies' wOBA drops from .346 (fifth in Majors) at home to .288 (24th) away from Coors Field. The White Sox hit .277 wOBA at home against lefties.
Kansa City's Maikel Garcia was 0-for-4 vs. Cleveland on Saturday to drop his season average to .232 and June average to .147. So this is an awfully cheap number even if Garcia is 3-for-8 career off Cleveland's Logan Allen.
We weren't expecting to jump on the Angels' bandwagon this season, but they're about to conclude their best homestand in decades and win all seven if they can complete the four-game sweep against the stumbling Tigers. The pitching matchup says they might, with Tyler Anderson being very reliable almost all season, as his 2.63 ERA suggests. Meanwhile, Detroit has stalled, and Casey Mize is another of their rotation pieces looking anywhere for daylight, as the Tigers have lost seven of his last 10 starts. Mize has posted a 5.36 ERA since the start of May.
We have not often said "go with the White Sox on the run line" this season but are making an exception against what might be an even more-woeful Rockies team. It was easy to come to that conclusion after Chicago bossed the first two games of this weekend set by a combined 16-6, part of its three-game winning streak, and with ace Garrett Crochet (1.66 ERA since the start of May) on the mound as it goes for the sweep. I'm reluctant to back Colorado with Kyle Freeland making only his second start since being activated and posting a 9.55 ERA this season.