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Sun, Jan 056:00 pm UTCRaymond James Stadium
70 F
Track OnCBS Sports
New Orleans
Saints
NO
Last 5 ATS
W/L5-12
ATS7-10
O/U8-9-0
FINAL SCORE
19
-
27
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
TB
Last 5 ATS
W/L10-7
ATS10-7
O/U12-5-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
5-12
Win /Loss
10-7
7-10
Spread
10-7
8-9-0
Over / Under
12-5-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
NO @ TB
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MONEYLINE
NO @ TB
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OVER / UNDER
NO @ TB
Subscribers Only

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16%
PUBLIC
84%
MONEY
4%
PUBLIC
96%
MONEY
Over82%
PUBLIC
Under18%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Over / UnderUnder 45 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1347
72-53-2 in Last 127 NFL Picks
+152
6-4 in Last 10 NFL O/U Picks
+82
3-2-1 in Last 6 TB O/U Picks
Mike's Analysis:

New Orleans' last five games have resulted in 35, 25, 39, 34 and 35 points. Most of the blame falls on the team’s offense, which has been putrid. With the usual list of injured suspects sitting out, there's no reason to think it will find relief. The concern is Tampa Bay’s imposing offense and the need to win for a division title. Given a clear superiority in this matchup, the Buccaneers could - and should - lean on their rushing attack, shorten the game and coast home to preserve their players for a wild-card contest next weekend.

Pick Made: Jan 05, 5:15 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsMike Evans Over 93.5 Total Receiving Yards -149
LOSS
Unit0.5
+314
48-32 in Last 80 NFL Player Props Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Big number, but Mike Evans has a $3 million bonus if he gets to five catches and 85 yards receiving in Week 18. Remember a couple of years ago where Tom Brady said to the coaches "don't you pull me" so he could get Rob Gronkowski his big bonus? I prefer the yards to catches for the obvious reason that Evans can top the yards on one play (although ME isn't really that fleet of foot these days to take a long TD to the house) and the Bucs have to play to win, so it's not like he will be pulled early.

Pick Made: Jan 02, 9:04 pm UTC on BetMGM
Point SpreadTampa Bay -13.5 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+180
3-2 in Last 5 NFL Picks
+90
2-1-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+1004
50-36 in Last 86 NO ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Over the past three games, the Bucs are averaging 7.0 yards per play. With a division title at stake, they will be highly motivated throughout. They're facing a Saints' team that has scored 10 total points in the past two games. Tampa Bay put up 51 points in the first meeting while intercepting Spencer Rattler twice. Look for the Bucs to win by at least two touchdowns.

Pick Made: Jan 02, 5:24 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsMike Evans Over 92.5 Total Receiving Yards -120
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Saints are cooked and the defense has fallen apart. Mike Evans needs 85 yards for another 1000-yard season and Baker Mayfield is set on getting him that and the Saints put up no resistance. Evans struggles vs them over the years but Marshawn Lattimore was dealt away and Saints can't cover. Evans will end up over 100 yards before he's pulled from this one.

Pick Made: Jan 02, 2:32 am UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadTampa Bay -13 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1421
39-23 in Last 62 NFL Picks
+775
53-41-1 in Last 95 NFL ATS Picks
+546
48-38-4 in Last 90 TB ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Buccaneers are a win away from locking up the division, and the offense has been cooking with six straight 400-yard performances (including two 500+ yard games). The Saints' last gasp appeared to be the near upset of Washington as they've crumbled the last two weeks, including at home to a bad Raiders team. This should be a game where the Bucs have the foot on the gas in get outside this number quickly, and even if Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are cleared to play I don't see the Saints fighting to cover here. I'd make this line Bucs -13 even in a normal week without motivation factors at play.

Pick Made: Jan 01, 1:37 pm UTC on Caesars
1st Half Spread1st Half Tampa Bay -6.5 -139
LOSS
Unit1.0
+201
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Game Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Another blowout spot where I am okay shortening the game. The Saints are pathetic at this point and lacking any offensive threats. The Bucs havent covered a full game vs them in 6 straight at home, but scored 51 on them in the meeting at NO. Bucs have scored at least 10 in first half of 6 straight and unless Baker is throwing pick sixes, Saints aint scoring much here. Saints have trailed by 38 at the half during their 3-game losing streak. Cannot play from behind. They have produced 2 first half TDs over their 5 games,

Pick Made: Jan 01, 2:06 am UTC on BetRivers
Over / UnderOver 43.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+99
10-8 in Last 18 NFL O/U Picks
+450
9-4 in Last 13 TB O/U Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Bucs need a win to capture the NFCS, they can't take any chances and ran up 51 on the Saints earlier this season before the NO D had totally cratered. These 2 teams have played 10 division games this season and all have produced at least 45 points. Combine 9-1 Over. Bucs games avg 62.4 points in the NFCS and Saints avg 53.4. NFC South games are generally bonkers. I don't think Todd Bowles pulls starters til 30 points and The Rizzler, an interim coach trying to keep his job, will be chasing points through garbage time. Saints have covered 6 straight at TB so maybe they keep it relatively close and make Bucs push til the end.

Pick Made: Dec 30, 2:26 pm UTC on FanDuel

Team Injuries

New Orleans Saints
Saturday, May 10, 2025
Avatar
QB
Derek Carr
ShoulderOut
Avatar
CB
Quincy Riley
UndisclosedQuestionable
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
RB
Alvin Kamara
GroinQuestionable
Avatar
TE
Foster Moreau
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
C
Erik McCoy
ElbowQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Rashid Shaheed
Knee - MeniscusQuestionable
Avatar
LB
D'Marco Jackson
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Pete Werner
ConcussionQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Nick Saldiveri
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Chris Olave
ConcussionQuestionable
Avatar
RB
Kendre Miller
ConcussionQuestionable
Avatar
DB
Rejzohn Wright
UndisclosedQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
QB
Taysom Hill
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Jaylan Ford
Lower LegQuestionable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tuesday, May 13, 2025
Avatar
CB
Benjamin Morrison
HipQuestionable
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
DB
Jamel Dean
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Silas Dzansi
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
DB
Christian Izien
PectoralQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Markees Watts
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
LB
SirVocea Dennis
ShoulderQuestionable
Wednesday, Apr 16, 2025
Avatar
OG
Sua Opeta
Knee - ACLQuestionable
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