This is a massive spread for an NFL game -- one I rarely take -- and it's one you might expect to have seen against the Panthers earlier this season before they started showing major fight in November. I believe the Bryce Young turnaround is real and he will be QB1 in 2025, but this Eagles defense is a major step up in class from Carolina's last four games. Plus, Philadelphia is uniquely posed to take advantage of a horrid rush defense with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and (even later in the game) Kenneth Gainwell. Wish I got this earlier in the week at -12.5, but this score sets up something like 34-10, so I'm still comfortable here.

Patience has paid off as this spread finally reached two full touchdowns. The Panthers are much improved -- having won twice outright in the past four weeks, falling to Kansas City on a last-tick field goal and losing in overtime. An emerging strength is their pass rush, which could give QB Jalen Hurts a hard time. True trap games, in which a team has a softer opponent sandwiched between major tests, are rare in the league. But Philly is coming off a taxing win over Baltimore and faces nearly-as-hot Pittsburgh next week. An Eagles win is probable; a blowout is not.

Jalen Coker is doubtful, so Moore should continue to get opportunities in this revitalized Carolina offense. The 29-old journeyman has drawn 19 targets the past two games, catching 11 passes. Moore won't have to deal with elite slot corner Cooper DeJean, and he should benefit from his team likely facing a big deficit.

The Panthers rank dead last in adjusted line yards allowed and now have to deal with MVP candidate Saquon Barkley. He has cleared this prop number in eight of 12 games. Books project Barkley to get 20 or 21 carries, so the opportunities should be there. With Carolina allowing a whopping 5.7 yards per carry over its last three games, I bet on Barkley to break one run of at least 20 yards.

Hubbard was way over this mark in Week 10 but has since been under in his past two games. His rushing? Downward spiral -- he averaged 14 carries and 50.5 rush yards. His receiving? Barely existent -- forget about those past two games, he has 16 or fewer receiving yards in nine straight. Rookie Jonathon Brooks has played the past two weeks and had more receiving yards last week than Hubbard's had in a game in two months. Everyone's expecting a blowout, and that's the game script that would crush Hubbard the most. Nine RBs have had over 71 total yards against the Eagles this season, but all but two had at least 20 receiving yards as part of the tally.

Thielen had three receptions in his first game back, but he played just 35 snaps and had a 67.5% route rate. Last week he played considerably more -- 50 snaps with a 78% route rate -- and he caught eight balls. Make no mistake, Thielen isn't the same playmaker he was years ago, but he's still savvy enough to find soft spots against zone coverage and become an easy short-area target for Bryce Young. I fully expect Philly to keep playing zone coverage like they have been for the last month-plus, I fully expect Carolina to play from behind, which means more passing, and I fully expect Carolina's run game to struggle. Thielen should catch five passes if not more.

The Panthers have been frisky in their last four games with two wins and two close losses. Even considering the step up in opponent in those two losses, I find it hard to see them staying competitive here. The Panthers have already allowed more than 2,000 rushing yards on the season, and it seems unlikely they'll be able to slow down the Eagles rushing attack at all. The Eagles defense has rounded into form and been brutal against opposing passers and rush attacks alike. I expect Philly to win by 20-plus here.

The Panthers aren't going to stop using Chuba Hubbard because he fumbled away the game last week in overtime. But it could make a dent in his usage, especially with rookie Jonathon Brooks finally available. Brooks got two carries in his first game and six carries last week against Tampa Bay. The Texas product was the first RB taken in the draft. This matchup has obvious blowout potential, so look for Carolina to keep giving Brooks more opportunities.

The Panthers defense is much improved through the season, this is a natural letdown spot for the Eagles and this game will be tougher than the spread indicated. When it is somewhat right at home, Hurts gets his carries on designed runs and scrambles. Throw in 2-3 Tush Pushes and a kneeldown or two and we could see 15 here easy. He has at least 10 rushes in every home game. If they run plays inside the 5, he gets first crack over Saquon.